Matchup Analysis

The sample size for this analysis will consider strategies that fall within the top 70% of the modern meta share from MTGGoldfish. Each section includes a brief strategy guide, sideboard plan and a summary of key cards in the matchup. Hashing out matchup strategy is a core component of any control deck and so pre-tournament matchup analysis is fundamental for success.

4C Control

Brief

Swaps

Elementals

Brief

Swaps

UR Delver

Preboard

Keeping Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer from connecting and life total management is the crux of the gameplan. A sticky ragavan with cheap permission can easily end the game. I am packing quite a few clean answers to murktide reagent so the main goal is to keep the board clear and grind them to dust. Typically I win games through damage races with creeping tarpit and snapcaster mage. It is effective at closing the game since the games tend to render both players' resources thin. With this in mind it is good to always consider attacking with a snapcaster mage even if the threat of a dashed ragavan exists.

Postboard

Key Cards (Prioritized)

1. Jace, the Mind Sculptor
2. Blood Moon / Magus of the Moon
3. Relic of Progenitus
4. Mystical Dispute
5. Flusterstorm

There are a ton of cards out of their sideboard that are slam dunks against grixis control. After sideboard they can pack up to 15 permission spells many of which are twice as efficient than counterspell. It is difficult for this iteration to fetch around a blood moon due to the lack of basics and the demanding mana requirements so just keep the threat of it in the back of your mind before giving them the opportunity to resolve a 3 mana spell. Relic is also not easy to play around so this one we will have to fight this one head on. While I generally like Engineered Explosives game 1 I think the deck has a diverse enough set of threats post board to limit the value of that effect.

I am still undecided on how to approach the sideboard games. On one hand the overwhelming permission in the UR Murktide deck post board makes me lean towards a creature gameplan with Dauthi Voidwalker and Tourach, Dread Cantor which play very well against a deck that's poised to beat me at counterspell wars on the stack over blue or non-creature spells. On the other hand I don't think there are enough good cuts post board to justify the transformational sideboard. One option is to cut Kolaghan's Command entirely but I think its an important non-blue way to grind out murktide.

Yawgmoth

Brief

Swaps

Living End

Preboard

Living End has been moving away from Grief in favour of Subtlety which is definitely good news for us since it means our permission has significantly more play. Living End is extremely fatal against us so the goal is to ensure it doesn't resolve. Grixis has the tools to beat this deck in a midrange fight with cards like sudden edict. Therefore I think it's wrong to counter a creature for the sole benefit of it being a tempo positive play. Snapcaster mage can be a liability against Endurance so flashing back a counterspell should not be relied on.

Postboard

Key Cards (Prioritized)

1. Leyline of the Void
2. Endurance
3. Mystical Dispute
4. Leyline of Sanctity

Our sideboard packs a ton of hate for graveyard strategies like Living End. Due to the density of hate its not unlikely that the gameplan for them revolves around sneaking in Endurance to race and pressure the planeswalkers. We naturally board out a number of creature removal spells but this is why I keep 2 fatal push in the maindeck over cards like Kolaghan's Command. Leyline of Sanctity has some play against Ashiok, Dream Renderer and thoughtseize so I included it in the cards to look out for even though it will not warrant removing these absolute bombs.

Temur Cascade

Preboard

This grixis list has interaction that generally lines up well against the primary Crashing Footfalls gameplan Temur Cascade tries to enact (Archmage's Charm). The tempo shell however is actually quite strong and can tussle with grixis control given the right combination of cards. Focus on countering crashing footfalls and clearing the board of creature and this deck will run out of steam very quickly. It plays 24 lands pitch spells and no way to acrue card advantage. Once they are low on resources grixis control should have no problem taking over the game.

Postboard

Key Cards (Prioritized)

1. Blood Moon
2. Mystical Dispute
3. Endurance

Blood Moon is difficult to play around in this version of grixis but be conscious of it. Endurance beats is the way I have lost this matchup in the past so keeping all of the fatal pushes and removing cards that don't line up against a Rhino, Fury, Bonecrusher Giant or Endurance do not make the cut. It will certainly cost me percentage points for leaving up permission for Magus of the Moon and taking hits from their creatures. I need to be constantly reassessing whether continuing to play around Magus makes sense.

1 Engineered Explosives

UW Hammer

Preboard

This is probably our strongest matchup. A pile of removal and powerful 2 for 1's in Kolaghan's Command and Archmage Charm is more than enough to disrupt the synergy driven deck and allow the card advantage spells to take over. Kaldra Compleat can be difficult to answer but options are available in Sudden Edict and Jace, the Mind Sculptor.

Postboard

Key Cards (Prioritized)

1. Teferi, Time Raveler
2. Spell Pierce
3. Relic of Progenitus
4. Mana Leak

We do not need a lot of top end to win this matchup in the post boarded games. Some lists can have Teferi, Time Raveler so be careful about representing counterspell mana.

Amulet Titan

Brief

Swaps

UW Control

Preboard

Name of the game is keeping little Teferi, Time Raveler off the battlefield. Always value tempo positive plays and play at instant speed and this matchup is as good as it gets. It's quite easy to grind UW to dust. Be conscious of instant speed wandering emperor.

Postboard

Key Cards (Prioritized)

1. Rest in Peace
2. Dovin's Veto
3. Mystical Dispute

Note that fluster storm and test of talents do not counter Teferi, Time Raveler or Rest in Piece which are their 2 best cards in the matchup. I can forecast some sequences where they play Teferi, Time Raveler with Dovin's Veto backup against my Counterspell with Flusterstorm or Test of Talents backup. They will win this exchange so I need to be very careful about using cards like Archmage's charm as a draw 2 post board. Tourach is one of my strongest cards in the matchup and can only be trumped by Hall of the Storm Giants which is the main reason for keeping in Sudden Edict post board.

Jund

Preboard

Jund is all about jockeying for a resource advantage and both decks will typically be reduced to playing off the top of the library. Newer versions of Jund have reduced their curve and are interested in having efficient ways to leverage card advantage in Urza's Saga Wrenn and Six and Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer. While grixis is good at answering creature threats the planeswalkers can single handedly run away with a game. An early discard spell into Liliana of the Veil, Grist, the Hunger Tide or Wrenn and Six is the strongest opening they can have against us. Removing resolved planeswalkers is particularly hard in my build because I rely on direct damage spells like Unholy Heat and Kolaghan's Command which will typically only do 2 damage by the time the planeswalkers come down. Dreadbore will certainly pull weight in this matchup. Another significant issue is Urza's Saga. In the absence of Kolaghan's Command I will typically have to trade a removal spell for 1/3 or an Urza's Saga which is undesirable in a resource battle. Newer iterations of jund demand playing to the board early so big creatures like Tasigur, the Golden Fang and Kess, Dissident Mage are key. They also provide pressure to their planeswalkers and Tasigur, the Golden Fang in particular is hard to kill without Liliana the Veil or Grist, the Hunger Tide.

With the introduction of Riveteers Charm traditional Jund decks are resurging. They are tending towards playing a higher density of creatures and planeswalkers in place of removal.

Postboard

Key Cards (Prioritized)

1. Nihil Spellbomb (MD)
2. Boil
3. Endurance

The strategy does not change after sideboard. Both of our decks are micro-optimizing for the matchup but executing the same gameplan. We want to increase our threat density while improving our removal against permanents. Despite the jund strategy being built on the back of targeted discard, I don't advocate taking boarding out any permission since they have a high density of powerful threats which can only be cleanly answered with permission. Sudden edict is considerably weaker against strategies with a high density of creatures (especially with Urza's Saga) spells that are single purpose are worse than multi-purpose here. Kolaghan's Command is not common in Jund so playing a naked Engineered Explosives for mana efficiency is reasonable.

G Tron

Preboard

Permission is of upmost importance. Outside of Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger, Tron has no direct way of circumventing permission. Relic of Progenitus is the best way they can mitigate the recursion of permission effects. This iteration of grixis control does not provide a fast way to close the game so focus on countering the payoffs rather than the combo assembly (Expedition Map, Sylvan Scrying) and run them out of resources. Tron does not have great mulligan flexibility and so often they will keep a hand that assembles Tron and any number of payoffs.

Note 2-3 Warping Wail's float in the main deck which can tag a Dreadbore.

Post Board

Key Cards (Prioritized)

1. Relic of Progenitus

Tron typically uses the Karn, the Great Creator sideboard package which means they will likely board very little. The only card which interacts favourably against this strategy is 4 Relic of Progenitus which they will likely have up to 4 copies of post board. Sideboard plan involves taking out cards with functionally no text in the matchup for cards that enact the proactive control strategy.

1 Tourach, Dread Cantor

Burn

Pre Board

The grixis mana base is the biggest pitfall when fighting burn since the spells often demand all 3 colours early. Take special care to preserve life total when getting mana into play. Always forecast whether fetching is a requirement or can be postponed. Prioritize playing spells that play to the board such as removal or even flashing in naked Snapcaster Mage's to provide bodies to block. Kolaghan's Command and Archmage's Charm are the powerful cards I am looking for in the matchup since they both play well to the board and yield card advantage.

Post Board

Key Cards (Prioritized)

1. Rest in Peace
2. Roiling Vortex
3. Sanctifier en-Vec

Playing to the board is critical for a decisive victory so the sideboard plan will involve removing most of the card advantage spells that don't play to the board well in place of fairly anemic creatures. Permission while maintaining an onboard advantage will give this iteration the best chance of beating burn without dedicated sideboard slots. This iteration of grixis has no answers to onboard enchantments like Rest In Peace and Roiling Vortex. Rest In Peace is the greatest threat out of the sideboard since it reduces our ability to play to the board. Based on the sideboard plan of boarding in a higher density of creatures I don't consider Roiling Vortex to be a significant threat unless the forecasted damage output is greater than 4 while losing the damage race. Snapcaster Mage and Sudden Edict line up well against Sanctifier en-Vec. Considering it is a 2/2 for 2 mana it is not a serious permission consideration most of the time.

Dimir & Grixis Shadow

Preboard

Shadow tends to play like a paced tempo strategy. They can go long pick a spot and win critical battles purely on the efficiency of the spells. Since their deck has a low curve they have a higher spell density meaning on a 1 for 1 basis our deck will tend to flood often resulting in a loss so resource management is critical. At about 5 mana grixis can operate comfortably and keep pace with the efficiency from the shadow decks.

Post Board

Key Cards (Prioritized)

1. Mystical Dispute
2. Spell Pierce
3. Nihil Spellbomb

Grixis

Grixis death shadow strategies are shifting to midrange shells with The Royal Scions and Kaito Shizuki. They still pack Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer and Dragon's Rage Channeler so all cheap removal is still required post board. Grixis generally has 4-6 discard spells in Thoughtseize and Inquisiton of Kozilek and 5-6 permission spells in Drown in the Loch and Spell Pierce. Due to the high volume of hand disruption, permission spells lose value.

Dimir

Dimir shadow focuses on threat quality over density with Ledger Shredder and Murktide Reagent. Dimir shadow plays a whooping 12 permission effects in Archmage's Charm, Drown in the Loch and Counterspell. Unholy Heat lines is unreliable against this strategies creature threats. Sideboard plan focuses on adding more efficient permission spells to fight large counterspell battles. A resolved Jace, the Mind Sculptor is very difficult for dimir to pressure. Unholy Heat comes out since it only has value when delirium is online which is less likely in post board games due to graveyard disruption out of the sideboard.