"You play it and become enemy number one".
Well I'm not sure I completely agree with that. At least not in my playgroups. Below is my perspective:
Using binomial coefficients, there's already a 30% chance for at least one person in a pod of 4 to pull a
sol ring in their opening hand after the draw. There is then a higher chance if people start mulling.
Pulling the turn 1
sol ring, or turn 1 lotus, is not going to be far off. It means that there's a 50% chance for someone to pull one of the ideal fast mana sources, provided they are running the right commander. I heard from a youtube video that it is compatible with around 300 commanders. Again, mulligans increase this chance. It's going to be commonplace as fuck to just have a fast commander start. I feel that people will probably just start ignoring other players with fast mana starts. They already do in my case with just sol rings and basic ramp.
Now let's talk about these mulligans: the mulligans are based on playstyle of groups and metas, but what I've always noticed is that people will mulligan for some form of ramp with 2-3 land, or 1cmc removal with 2-3 land. This is so that they can respond to fast plays, or be the fast plays. It does not always happen, and they run a considerable risk for disadvantage doing it, but if they notice a commander they don't want to see make a fast start (krenko, for instance), they may try it. Also, my playgroups allow 1 free mulligan, this was in response to serious mana screwing issues. However, it has become a tool to win and I hate it.
We must also consider if not everyone is running enough removal and no one mulls, which can certainly happen (say there's only 1 quick spot removal spells in everyone's decks, like swords or path), then there is likely no answer for this high chance of running away to become mayor of value town turns 1-4. There is only a 32% chance someone would draw that 1 cmc spot removal within that time frame. If players were to load up on lots of 1 cmc removal (
pongify, swords, path, etc...) There could be upwards of a 86% chance to respond to it within that time frame. Though, you really don't want to have that much 1 cmc removal, as it would probably take a away from potentially important draws that could give you more value for your draw. At a certain point, you have to play the deck you made.
What I'm getting at is that is that I think people, at least in my groups, are either A) going to load up on more removal than ever before, B) make their decks only control/reactive-based, or C) just ignore it and let people run away with high value plays because multiple players are probably playing lotuses and sol rings on turn 1. It's most likely C because we already largely ignore
sol ring starts. The only time I ever see an enemy at a table is when they are trying to combo off or do big shit you know they're about to win with (fucking anjie, man).
However, my groups may silently agree not to run it, as we do not run the other fast mana rocks or most of the reserved list. I won't, because it would be way out of scale for my group. However, I think it is unlikely that I will get targeted for this card, especially over a
sol ring, which stays around forever.
tl;dr If you are in groups running the fast mana rocks, I do not think this weird nonsense I said applies to your concerns. Lotus is benign in high-power circles, but, like the other fast rocks, probably warping in mid-low power level circles. No it doesn't need to be banned imo
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