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English-language Forums => Commander Discussion => Topic started by: Morganator 2.0 on May 12, 2019, 03:18:09 am

Title: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 12, 2019, 03:18:09 am
At the request of another member, I'm going to give my tips and tactics for proper threat assessment. Other people can add in their own advice, reinforce what has already been said, or ask questions.

Deck Building
First step is the deck building. Make sure you have a good interaction package, otherwise the rest of this thread doesn't matter.

Creature/Artifact RemovalCounterspellsStax effects
General Rules

Dealing with combos
As you face off against more combo decks, you'll start to see signs as to when they are about to combo off. If they played Bloodchief Ascension (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Bloodchief+Ascension), there is a good chance that they will play Mindcrank (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Mindcrank) in a turn or two, so get ready to use that Nature's Claim (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Nature%27s+Claim). Don't use it right away though, wait for them to actually cast Mindcrank (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Mindcrank). That moment is the best time to remove Bloodchief Ascension (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Bloodchief+Ascension), because someone else could play their combo leading up to that point.

With combos, your top priority is stopping the fastest decks first. This might sound obvious, but you should always be wary for the person who is going to combo first. Think short-term. The other important thing is using stax effects. Stax cards are really good at stopping combos. If you face a lot of artifact-based decks, consider using Stony Silence (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Stony+Silence) or Aura of Silence (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Aura+of+Silence). If they win with a creature's activated ability (Like Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Kiki-Jiki%2C+Mirror+Breaker) or Prime Speaker Vannifar (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Prime+Speaker+Vannifar)) use something like Cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cursed+Totem) or Linvala, Keeper of Silence (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Linvala%2C+Keeper+of+Silence). If they cast lots of spells in one turn, use something like Damping Sphere (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Damping+Sphere), Rule of Law (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Rule+of+Law), or Ruric Thar, the Unbowed (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Ruric+Thar%2C+the+Unbowed).

Dealing with stax
Most important thing with stax effects; if it's stopping someone else from winning, leave it alone. As annoying as Damping Sphere (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Damping+Sphere) can be, if it's stopping a combo deck from winning, leave it be. You should only remove a stax piece if it is either hurting you more than other players, or if it is directly stopping you from winning. As with combo pieces, wait for the last possible moment to remove a stax piece. This will usually be right before your untap step (end step of the previous turn) so that way you are the first person to take advantage of the stax piece being gone.

Baiting and bluffing
This applies more to counterspells than removal, but it can be applied to both. Baiting is when you play a spell, expecting it to get countered, and then you play the spell you really wanted to cast. For example, if you're playing Brago, King Eternal (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Brago%2C+King+Eternal), you might cast Armageddon (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Armageddon) (your bait), which gets countered, and then you can cast Panharmonicon (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Panharmonicon). Depending on the situation, you might instead use Panharmonicon (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Panharmonicon) as the bait, and then cast Armageddon (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Armageddon). The point is, your opponent uses their counterspell (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell), so you can safely cast your other spell. Keep in mind that your opponents might not have a counterspell (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell), so make sure that you're not hurt if your bait actually resolves.

Bluffing is when you pretend to have a counterspell (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell), but you don't actually. You make your opponents think you have one, so they hold back their most powerful moves. Games can be altered by bluffing. One of the best bluffs:
(https://i.imgur.com/A9b96VK.jpg)
I'm not kidding, this is often all it takes to make people second guess (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Second+Guess) their plays. Now if someone plays something that is definitely worth countering, play it off like you don't need to. "I'm casting Purphoros (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Purphoros%2C%20God%20of%20the%20Forge&set=THS)." "How many cards do you have in hand?" "Three." "Yeah that's fine." Make it look like you have a plan to deal with this obvious threat, so it isn't counterspell (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell) worthy. They might be baiting, and this will still make people hesitate.

Wrapping up

I'm done for now. Bring on your questions and comments. In a little while, I might post little challenges to test your threat assessment skills.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Soren841 on May 12, 2019, 03:37:51 am
Don't even get me started on threat assessment in EDH
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 12, 2019, 05:21:22 am
Done.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Firegriff on May 12, 2019, 06:02:24 am
Another thing to consider is if you know an opponent will specifically target you regardless of what other players may have on the field.  I was in a playgroup before where a certain opponent who liked playing high powered decks always prioritized me over anyone else (even if they were about to win), which forced me to have to angle my board to sropping that specific player.  Otherwise, I would be more or less (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=More+or+Less) his only target.  Didn't matter if I was playing high power or janky fun decks either.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: WWolfe on May 12, 2019, 03:33:36 pm
Be sure to really survey the board and prioritize any thing on it/coming into it that hoses your decks line of play. GY hate (Rest in Peace (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Rest+in+Peace)) in a GY based deck (Sidisi, Meren, Karador, etc.). Propaganda (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Propaganda) effects against a token swarm deck. The exception would be unless it's stopping someone else from winning the game.

Exile (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Exile) effects (Path to Exile (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Path+to+Exile), Swords, Merciless Eviction (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Merciless+Eviction)) are better than destroy effects (Go for the Throat (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Go+for+the+Throat), Damnation (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Damnation), etc.) 99 times out of 100 as it's 100 times easier to bring something back from the GY than it is from exile (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Exile).

Cards with multiple modes (Austere Command (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Austere+Command), etc.) are usually better than cards that don't have multiple modes even if they cost a mana or two more (Wrath of God (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Wrath+of+God)).

Watch for tricky political players. For instance, my main playgroup has a player that will live up to his end of the bargain (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Bargain) to the letter BUT with a way of turning it to his advantage. For instance, he one time convinced someone not to exile (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Exile) his Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Ulamog%2C+the+Infinite+Gyre) to get the Annihalator 4 trigger on another player and would then sack the Ulamog in his second main phase while the exile (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Exile) player would use the exile (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Exile) spell to clear the path so Ulamog would get through and deal combat damage. He did just that BUT he then brought Ulamog back right away with an instant speed Reanimate (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Reanimate) (thanks to Orrery & using the mana from sacking Ulamog to his Phyrexian Altar (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Phyrexian+Altar)). So he did live up to the deal but he did so in a way that propelled him ahead of both other players (my girlfriend was telling the guy he was making a deal with the devil but he did so anyway).

As Morganator said, bluffing is also part of the game. I have won several games where I bluffed my way to winning by leaving open the right amount of mana for a bluff until I had my win condition in hand.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Red_Wyrm on May 13, 2019, 02:32:18 pm
Great thread, Morganator, and nice tips from both you and Wwolfe.

Wwolfe kind of mentioned this. Like austere command (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Austere+Command) over wrath of god (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Wrath+of+God) for the selection, but what about something like return to dust (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Return+to+Dust)? It can be 4 mana instant speed or 4 mana addendum before addendum was a thing. Or decimate (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Decimate). It is sorcery speed compared to something like naturalize (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Naturalize), but it is hitting 4 targets, and you can either spread the love, or decimate (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Decimate) (haha see what I did there) one person badly. Then I also run Hull breach (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Hull+Breach) for the chance to clear an artifact AND enchantment, but at the cost of sorcery speed.

It was implied in your post that removal should be instant speed, but how is sorcery speed? Is it never worth it, or worth it sometimes? Usually it has an advantage over an instant since it is slower, but someone can cast all their combo pieces in 1 turn and win, right?
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 13, 2019, 02:43:39 pm
That's a good point actually.

Instant-speed is generally better, because it gives more opportunities than sorceries. This is especially important when dealing with combo or stax pieces (so, most cases where you want to remove something).

The advantage with cards like Hull Breach (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Hull+Breach) and Decimate (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Decimate) is that they hit multiple targets. Whereas one-for-one trades aren't that great in commander, being able to hit multiple targets can become one-for-two, or one-for-four.

The issue is that the downsides are usually sorcery-speed, and they cost more mana. Both Return to Dust (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Return+to+Dust) and Decimate (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Decimate) are 4 mana, which is also not good.

From my experience, low-cost high-efficiency tends to work best. If you're in a more casual meta where combos and stax are less common, but bomb plays like Coat of Arms (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Coat+of+Arms) or Sunbird's Invocation (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sunbird%27s+Invocation) are more common, then Decimate (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Decimate) and return to Dust (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Return+to+Dust) will work fine.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Judaspriester on May 13, 2019, 02:54:55 pm
I personally prefere Crush Contraband (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Crush+Contraband) over Return to Dust (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Return+to+Dust). Yes, I'm not able to exile (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Exile) 2 cards of the same type, but on the other hand, I'm able to exile (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Exile) 2 Cards at instant speed, in stead of 1 at instant speed or 2 at sorcery.

About the cost, always take a look around at your playgroup. If they play high optimized low cmc decks, 4 mana for a removal is damn expensive. In a slower meta, or if you got enough ramp to afford them, you can also play the higher cmc stuff.

Speaking about this, what about Deathsprout (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Deathsprout)? basical this is Rampant Growth (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Rampant+Growth) + Murder (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Murder) for cmc 4. For me it seems like a solid choice, unless you need to be fast.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 13, 2019, 03:20:07 pm
I don't like Deathsprout (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Deathsprout). Even Murder (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Murder) isn't that great of a card. 4 mana is bad for removal, and bad for mana ramp. Having both tacked on to the same card doesn't make up for the 4 mana downside.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: robort on May 14, 2019, 12:02:51 am
Nice thread and here is one important thing and I was suspectable to it myself the last time our playgroup go together. First I forgot who was the best player at the table and I know who he which is sort of important. Now why I say this was because another player drops Ugin down and wipes everyones board but some of his. Next player goes and his turn is insignificant and I have my turn. This turn I call a revenge play and I exile (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Exile) ugin and destroy his biggest creature but yet his board was threatning but not that threatning at all. Best player goes next and within 4 turns wins the game. My revenge play would have been better to hold out but I was getting revenge no matter the cost.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: WWolfe on May 14, 2019, 01:00:33 am
There is also some value to showing that you will come back on people who come at you Robort. I may not get them back right away, but I will before the end of the game.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 14, 2019, 01:33:54 am
Maybe this will help, or maybe this is just me putting way to much effort into something pointless (again). I hope this picture shows up well enough that you can read the cards. Let's see how good your threat assessment is, starting with an easy one.

(https://i.imgur.com/UMaf3OX.jpg)


Hover your cursor over to reveal the answer. For whatever reason, card names are hidden under spoiler text.

You should remove Cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cursed+Totem). The Cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cursed+Totem) is hurting you a lot more than anything else.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Firegriff on May 14, 2019, 03:54:43 am
I would probably go after Winter Orb (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Winter+Orb).  First, I would get the mana advantage, and it is inhibiting my play potential.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Soren841 on May 14, 2019, 04:32:51 am
Big bet. Kill lense easy
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Judaspriester on May 14, 2019, 10:14:39 am
Hmm.. lets see what we can hit:

Hmm.. the most interesting choice would be Winter Orb (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Winter+Orb), since the other 2 doesn't really affect me and I'm the first player that benefits of the mana advantage. But I'm not sure I would blow it up at all this turn, depending on my hand it could be a viable solution to wait one more turn, if I'm able to play something useful with 3 mana. It hurts the player to my left way more than me.

/edit: As Moganator mentioned, i mixed up Cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Cursed+Totem) with Null Rod (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Null+Rod). This changes the situation. In this case, I think its more interesting to destroy the Cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Cursed+Totem), since this would help me, but not my opponents (at least at the current board state). Waiting doesn't seem to be a viable option, since I would be limited to 2 mana in my turn.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 14, 2019, 11:50:20 am
Quote from: Judaspriester on May 14, 2019, 10:14:39 am
  • Cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Cursed+Totem) - currently doesn't matter, since it just doesn't allow to re-equip the greaves

I think you misread the card. Cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cursed+Totem) says that activate abilities of creatures can't be activated. You're thinking of Null Rod (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Null+Rod).
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Judaspriester on May 14, 2019, 12:19:32 pm
Quote from: Morganator 2.0 on May 14, 2019, 11:50:20 am
Quote from: Judaspriester on May 14, 2019, 10:14:39 am
  • Cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Cursed+Totem) - currently doesn't matter, since it just doesn't allow to re-equip the greaves

I think you misread the card. Cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cursed+Totem) says that activate abilities of creatures can't be activated. You're thinking of Null Rod (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Null+Rod).

Yeah, I've mixed those two up. I'll edit the initial post.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: robort on May 14, 2019, 02:27:57 pm
I probably would go for the lens. Limiting the sidisi player to one mana on his turn instead of 2.  By taking winter orb (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Winter+Orb) out opens up the sidisi player to possibly drop another snow covered swamp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Snow-Covered+Swamp) giving him 4 mana For his turn when I can limit him to 2 mana with a land drop by taking out the lens.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Red_Wyrm on May 14, 2019, 02:34:39 pm
Oops. I thought that cursed totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cursed+Totem) was a torpor orb (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Torpor+Orb). Not 100% on all the stax card names. So it doesn't prevent sidisi from exploiting, but that isn't really a problem because he can only untap 1 land. I can only untap 1 land, but I have two mana dudes and also my hand is empty except for my removal.

Oh but I can't tap my dudes for mnana, can I? because the cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cursed+Totem). Destroy that because it hurts only me while the other pieces are hurting other players more than me.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 14, 2019, 10:22:20 pm
Congratulations to Judaspriester and Red_Wyrm. The answer is Cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cursed+Totem). You both get a fake internet point.

Red_Wyrm hit the nail on the head.

Quote from: Red_Wyrm on May 14, 2019, 02:34:39 pm
Oh but I can't tap my dudes for mana, can I? Because the Cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cursed+Totem). Destroy that because it hurts only me while the other pieces are hurting other players more than me.

Winter Orb (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Winter+Orb) is currently affecting everyone equally (And Sidisi a little bit more). This will change when Derevi comes out, but you still won't be hurt as much, so long as you have your mana dorks. But your mana dorks are nonfunctional so long as Cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cursed+Totem) is around. You might have noticed that each player has three lands (Sidisi had to exile (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Exile) one to Extraplanar Lens (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Extraplanar+Lens)). This is still an early game, and having two mana dorks while hardly anyone else has ramp is a strong lead.

Extraplanar Lens (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Extraplanar+Lens) might be trouble in the future, but so long as the Winter Orb (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Winter+Orb) is there, Sidisi's land based mana will be limited.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Red_Wyrm on May 14, 2019, 10:45:36 pm
Quote from: Morganator 2.0 on May 14, 2019, 10:22:20 pm
Congratulations to Judaspriester and Red_Wyrm. The answer is Cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cursed+Totem). You both get a fake internet point.

Red_Wyrm hit the nail on the head.

Quote from: Red_Wyrm on May 14, 2019, 02:34:39 pm
Oh but I can't tap my dudes for mana, can I? Because the Cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cursed+Totem). Destroy that because it hurts only me while the other pieces are hurting other players more than me.

Winter Orb (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Winter+Orb) is currently affecting everyone equally (And Sidisi a little bit more). This will change when Derevi comes out, but you still won't be hurt as much, so long as you have your mana dorks. But your mana dorks are nonfunctional so long as Cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cursed+Totem) is around. You might have noticed that each player has three lands (Sidisi had to exile (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Exile) one to Extraplanar Lens (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Extraplanar+Lens)). This is still an early game, and having two mana dorks while hardly anyone else has ramp is a strong lead.

Extraplanar Lens (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Extraplanar+Lens) might be trouble in the future, but so long as the Winter Orb (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Winter+Orb) is there, Sidisi's land based mana will be limited.

Um. I believe I said Mnana. God morganator. There is literally a button that says insert quote, and you still messed it up, smg. (kidding)
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: robort on May 14, 2019, 10:59:44 pm
But your mana dorks are nonfunctional so long as Cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cursed+Totem)

That is why I said probably. I wasn't fully sure of the ruling with the mana dorks and cursed totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cursed+Totem). I had a rule in my head from some part of this complex game that basically you are allowed to tap for mana no matter what.

LOL don't ask me to find the ruling or explain it, I just had it in my head and that is what made me guess wrong. But if I was playing the example game I would have asked the other players about the ruling so I would know exactly what my move would have been.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 14, 2019, 11:01:41 pm
Is the text on the cards not showing up well on your computers? Damn, that's my bad. I'll try to fix it for the next example I use.

As for the rulings, the card will say on it if mana abilities are included. A better example is Pithing Needle (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Pithing+Needle) and Phyrexian Revoker (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Phyrexian+Revoker). Pithing Needle (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Pithing+Needle) does not stop mana abilities, but Phyrexian Revoker (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Phyrexian+Revoker) does.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Red_Wyrm on May 14, 2019, 11:08:49 pm
Quote from: Morganator 2.0 on May 14, 2019, 11:01:41 pm
Is the text on the cards not showing up well on your computers? Damn, that's my bad. I'll try to fix it for the next example I use.

As for the rulings, the card will say on it if mana abilities are included. A better example is Pithing Needle (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Pithing+Needle) and Phyrexian Revoker (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Phyrexian+Revoker). Pithing Needle (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Pithing+Needle) does not stop mana abilities, but Phyrexian Revoker (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Phyrexian+Revoker) does.

Everything showed up fine on my screen. Can I get a karma (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Karma) for my answer? Well I dont think it really matters. Not sure what it's used for, anyway.

But yeah no. It showed up perfectly fine on my screen for the example thingy. Not sure about others though, obviously. I'm no stalker. Thatd be weird, and illegal, I think.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: robort on May 14, 2019, 11:12:47 pm
It isn't that it didn't show up. LOL now I will have to go look for what ruling I was thinking of when making my assessment. I am not justifying my answer because of this, just pointing out why I made my decision. I personally try to remember every possible rule and how it interacts with this game. So many interactions in this game and that makes me forget (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Forget) what exactly happens until of course it happens again.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Judaspriester on May 15, 2019, 09:32:13 am
Quote from: robort on May 14, 2019, 11:12:47 pm
It isn't that it didn't show up. LOL now I will have to go look for what ruling I was thinking of when making my assessment. I am not justifying my answer because of this, just pointing out why I made my decision. I personally try to remember every possible rule and how it interacts with this game. So many interactions in this game and that makes me forget (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Forget) what exactly happens until of course it happens again.

I've seen way worse rule mistakes at my playgroup. At Ugin, the Spirit Dragon (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Ugin%2C+the+Spirit+Dragon), the player that played it explained his -x as "mana cost x (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=X) or more" (in stead of less), which made ugin a extreme powerhouse. As he noticed his error, he was thinking "okay, ugin is bad then".  :o
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Red_Wyrm on May 15, 2019, 03:28:40 pm
Quote from: Judaspriester on May 15, 2019, 09:32:13 am
Quote from: robort on May 14, 2019, 11:12:47 pm
It isn't that it didn't show up. LOL now I will have to go look for what ruling I was thinking of when making my assessment. I am not justifying my answer because of this, just pointing out why I made my decision. I personally try to remember every possible rule and how it interacts with this game. So many interactions in this game and that makes me forget (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Forget) what exactly happens until of course it happens again.

I've seen way worse rule mistakes at my playgroup. At Ugin, the Spirit Dragon (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Ugin%2C+the+Spirit+Dragon), the player that played it explained his -x as "mana cost x (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=X) or more" (in stead of less), which made ugin a extreme powerhouse. As he noticed his error, he was thinking "okay, ugin is bad then".  :o

Yeah Ugin is bad. I'll take it off his hands for 20 bucks. I'm doing hima favor. he'll never get a deal like this again. Relay the message for me please  ;)
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 17, 2019, 12:57:59 pm
Here's another weird thing I've learnt; where you sit at the table can have an effect on the game, especially when counterspell (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell) decks are involved. Let me give an example.

Let's say Baral, Chief of Compliance (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Baral%2C+Chief+of+Compliance) has a single Counterspell (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell) in his hand. It is Selvala, Heart of the Wild's turn, and she casts Staff of Domination (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Staff+of+Domination) (her game winning card). Baral uses the counterspell (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell). Then it is Grenzo, Dungeon Warden (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Grenzo%2C+Dungeon+Warden)'s turn. He casts Doomsday (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Doomsday), and wins the game, because there is not counterspell (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell) this time.

However, if the turn order was different, then the game would be different. If Grenzo went first, when he goes to cast Doomsday (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Doomsday), it gets countered. But then Selvala can cast Staff of Domination (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Staff+of+Domination), and she wins.

When in doubt, sit as far away from the counterspell (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell) player as possible. I'm going to see if I can get another test together tonight.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Aetherium Slinky on May 17, 2019, 01:43:27 pm
Quote from: Morganator 2.0 on May 17, 2019, 12:57:59 pm
However, if the turn order was different, then the game would be different.
I don't think this is the correct assessment or it is if we take your premise as-is. However, there shouldn't really be a situation like this. All players should carry enough removal and counters so that the poor Baral player isn't carrying the entire table.


***

Regarding the example table; I don't think I can make a fair assessment if I don't know something about the hands (i.e. card counts of opponents and cards in my own hand). I would in fact wait if I don't have anything significant to cast. The board doesn't look like anyone is about to win next turn due to all the tax. Untapping a land seeing what happens could be good enough.

I don't know what the Sidisi player is up to but untap land + play land is 4 black mana, which is threatening. If I save the Nature's Claim (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Nature%27s+Claim) it's possible that Sidisi's threats get countered by the Grand Arbiter player. Or Derevi. Neither of those two is close to dropping anything big so I wouldn't rush it.

Things change a lot if I have a land in hand or a 5-drop, in which case Totem's gotta go. 
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: WWolfe on May 17, 2019, 02:06:31 pm
Quote from: MustaKotka on May 17, 2019, 01:43:27 pm
Quote from: Morganator 2.0 on May 17, 2019, 12:57:59 pm
However, if the turn order was different, then the game would be different.
I don't think this is the correct assessment or it is if we take your premise as-is. However, there shouldn't really be a situation like this. All players should carry enough removal and counters so that the poor Baral player isn't carrying the entire table.

Sad fact...a lot of players don't pack enough removal and counters so you will find yourself in the position- more times than you should- that you will be the only one with answers.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Soren841 on May 17, 2019, 02:24:57 pm
Having answers is against the spirit of EDH !!! /s
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 17, 2019, 04:30:15 pm
Quote from: WWolfe on May 17, 2019, 02:06:31 pm
Sad fact...a lot of players don't pack enough removal and counters so you will find yourself in the position- more times than you should- that you will be the only one with answers.

This is why the first thing I went over was deck-building. You won't be able to answer threats if you don't... well... have answers. You need to have an at least decent removal package. During game play, you also need to leave up mana for your removal spells, but this can slow down your ability to build a boardstate. This is also what I plan on making the next test about; deciding on when you should answer threats, or when you should focus on yourself.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Red_Wyrm on May 17, 2019, 04:36:06 pm
Quote from: Soren841 on May 17, 2019, 02:24:57 pm
Having answers is against the spirit of EDH !!! /s

I feel like this was unnecessary.

In my own personal experience, I am the only one who runs counterspells, and my brother (but thats because I build his decks) except for when I am about to win. I cast Jin-Gitaxias? Nope disallow (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Disallow). Cyclonic rift (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cyclonic+Rift), swan song (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Swan+Song).

I say this jokingly, but this is exactly how it happens. I cast both Jin and cyclonic rift (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cyclonic+Rift) before my opponent discarded with the intentions of making them discard their entire board, and they both got countered by the same person (there were only myself and him left.)  Any advice on how I can not waste my counterspells if I know my opponents are carrying them too? Usually when I counter something, it is something that would be hurting everyone, so they have a reason to counter it too, but they know I won't let it resolve. It isn't like I jump (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Jump) up and say NO I COUNTERSPELL (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell) before there is a chance for the proper sequence of priority. Most of the time I have the most control, and my opponents know this based on my general. Like if I have krenko they know I am not counterspelling stuff, but Sen Triplets (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sen+Triplets)/zedru/Thraximundar (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Thraximundar) is totally different.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Soren841 on May 17, 2019, 04:43:48 pm
Definitely not unnecessary. It's sad but people do think that. They think EDH should just be for splashy plays that no one stops.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Judaspriester on May 17, 2019, 04:46:34 pm
Quote from: Red_Wyrm on May 17, 2019, 04:36:06 pm
Quote from: Soren841 on May 17, 2019, 02:24:57 pm
Having answers is against the spirit of EDH !!! /s

I feel like this was unnecessary.

In my own personal experience, I am the only one who runs counterspells, and my brother (but thats because I build his decks) except for when I am about to win. I cast Jin-Gitaxias? Nope disallow (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Disallow). Cyclonic rift (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cyclonic+Rift), swan song (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Swan+Song).

I say this jokingly, but this is exactly how it happens. I cast both Jin and cyclonic rift (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cyclonic+Rift) before my opponent discarded with the intentions of making them discard their entire board, and they both got countered by the same person (there were only myself and him left.)  Any advice on how I can not waste my counterspells if I know my opponents are carrying them too? Usually when I counter something, it is something that would be hurting everyone, so they have a reason to counter it too, but they know I won't let it resolve. It isn't like I jump (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Jump) up and say NO I COUNTERSPELL (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell) before there is a chance for the proper sequence of priority. Most of the time I have the most control, and my opponents know this based on my general. Like if I have krenko they know I am not counterspelling stuff, but Sen Triplets (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sen+Triplets)/zedru/Thraximundar (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Thraximundar) is totally different.

Hmm.. what about using this knowledge about your playgroup to abuse it? Build one/some decks that f*ck the table up, unless they play some interactions.
Here are 2 possible outcomes (maybe one is folowed by the other):
- alot of complains about the deck(s) because its "unfair"
- the others start adding at least some more removal


I've sometimes got the same problem with my muldrotha deck. I play it "permanents only", which means I get everything back, unless there is some graveyard hate. Then an other player complains, that he doesn't need to play with his deck, since he has no graveyard hate included. if we agree to play anyway, he goes ultra agressive against me, mostly ignoring the board state of the other players, because he's afraid he can't stop me later on. But on the other hand, he doesn't add graveyard hate, which would give him a chance to solve this issue.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 17, 2019, 05:18:18 pm
Quote from: Red_Wyrm on May 17, 2019, 04:36:06 pm
Any advice on how I can not waste my counterspells if I know my opponents are carrying them too?

A counterspell (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell) war is usually a bad idea. Counterspells are already card disadvantage, so if you're going to counter a counterspell (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell), it better be for a game winning play. There are three things you can do instead.

Anti-counters
Adjust to your meta. Use stuff that prevents or discourages counterspells. A few of my favorites:

Out-value
Have strong enough card advantage that you can afford to have some stuff get countered. This works especially well if your opponents are bad at threat assessment, and will counter whatever you play. It becomes very easy to bait them.

Recursion
A derivative of out-value. You'll be fine with people countering/removing your stuff if you can get it back later. Be careful though; a strategy like this can be detrimental to card advantage, unless your commander is the source of recursion (Like Muldrotha, the Gravetide (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Muldrotha%2C+the+Gravetide) or Tasigur, the Golden Fang (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Tasigur%2C+the+Golden+Fang)).
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Red_Wyrm on May 17, 2019, 05:25:34 pm
Quote from: Judaspriester on May 17, 2019, 04:46:34 pm
Quote from: Red_Wyrm on May 17, 2019, 04:36:06 pm
Quote from: Soren841 on May 17, 2019, 02:24:57 pm
Having answers is against the spirit of EDH !!! /s

I feel like this was unnecessary.

In my own personal experience, I am the only one who runs counterspells, and my brother (but thats because I build his decks) except for when I am about to win. I cast Jin-Gitaxias? Nope disallow (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Disallow). Cyclonic rift (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cyclonic+Rift), swan song (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Swan+Song).

I say this jokingly, but this is exactly how it happens. I cast both Jin and cyclonic rift (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cyclonic+Rift) before my opponent discarded with the intentions of making them discard their entire board, and they both got countered by the same person (there were only myself and him left.)  Any advice on how I can not waste my counterspells if I know my opponents are carrying them too? Usually when I counter something, it is something that would be hurting everyone, so they have a reason to counter it too, but they know I won't let it resolve. It isn't like I jump (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Jump) up and say NO I COUNTERSPELL (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell) before there is a chance for the proper sequence of priority. Most of the time I have the most control, and my opponents know this based on my general. Like if I have krenko they know I am not counterspelling stuff, but Sen Triplets (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sen+Triplets)/zedru/Thraximundar (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Thraximundar) is totally different.

Hmm.. what about using this knowledge about your playgroup to abuse it? Build one/some decks that f*ck the table up, unless they play some interactions.
Here are 2 possible outcomes (maybe one is folowed by the other):
- alot of complains about the deck(s) because its "unfair"
- the others start adding at least some more removal


I've sometimes got the same problem with my muldrotha deck. I play it "permanents only", which means I get everything back, unless there is some graveyard hate. Then an other player complains, that he doesn't need to play with his deck, since he has no graveyard hate included. if we agree to play anyway, he goes ultra agressive against me, mostly ignoring the board state of the other players, because he's afraid he can't stop me later on. But on the other hand, he doesn't add graveyard hate, which would give him a chance to solve this issue.

I like this idea, and I have started including silver bullets to take care of certain specific decks that are just too much, but they are widely frowned upon. I don't get why I m not allowed to take advantage of my low curve and play cards like Armageddon (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Armageddon), but you can take advantage of your devotion to black with nykthos and cast exsanguinate (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Exsanguinate) for 30+. Oops thats a different topic.

So I've started to include stax cards like stony silence (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Stony+Silence) or cards like Erebos, God of the dead (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Erebos%2C+God+of+the+Dead) since EVERYONE except me has a lifegain deck, or The Immortal Sun (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=The+Immortal+Sun) against superfriends but everyone always complains that isnt fair. I've started to take this view point: If they quit and cry, I've eliminated a player. It is their fault if they don't wanna adapt to the meta and adjust their decks to fight my hate cards.

I do have decks that take advantage of the lack of removal, and my maelstrom Wanderer (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Maelstrom+Wanderer) is explosive, but it turns into archenemy. My opponent cast Armageddon (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Armageddon) while another person had avacyn, angel of hope (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Avacyn%2C+Angel+of+Hope) out just to spite me. (But remember I am not allowed to play Armageddon (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Armageddon), perhaps because they cry about being the victim of it, and I don't, maybe I'll start acting like a two year old) I still won.

TLDR; The first thing happened:
Quote
-alot of complains about the deck(s) because its "unfair"

I am just waiting for the second to happen, if it ever will:
Quote
- the others start adding at least some more removal

Morganator,

I don't so much want counterspell (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell) hate but I want other people to use their counterspells to answer threats.

Like if Ezuri, Renegade Leader (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Ezuri%2C+Renegade+Leader) casts Sage of Hours (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sage+of+Hours), while he has 5+ experience counters, either the sage has to be countered or Ezuri or the sage must be removed before combat, preferably sage of hours (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sage+of+Hours). If I suspect my opponent has a counterspell (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell), but chooses not to use it, expecting me to counter it, I have to because he may not have a path to exile (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Path+to+Exile) in his hand, and I may not either. I don't like being forced to use my own counterspells because someone else would rather lose than use theirs.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Red_Wyrm on May 17, 2019, 05:27:27 pm
Quote from: Soren841 on May 17, 2019, 04:43:48 pm
Definitely not unnecessary. It's sad but people do think that. They think EDH should just be for splashy plays that no one stops.

Yeah no one likes counterspells. Someone sits and does nothing until turn 6 or 7, dropping something like Avacyn, Angel of hope (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Avacyn%2C+Angel+of+Hope), or Storm Herd (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Storm+Herd), and gets upset when it gets counterspelled because their deck is, well, poorly made.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 17, 2019, 07:13:42 pm
Quote from: Red_Wyrm on May 17, 2019, 05:25:34 pm
Like if Ezuri, Renegade Leader (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Ezuri%2C+Renegade+Leader) casts Sage of Hours (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sage+of+Hours), while he has 5+ experience counters, either the sage has to be countered or Ezuri or the sage must be removed before combat, preferably sage of hours (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sage+of+Hours). If I suspect my opponent has a counterspell (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell), but chooses not to use it, expecting me to counter it, I have to because he may not have a path to exile (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Path+to+Exile) in his hand, and I may not either. I don't like being forced to use my own counterspells because someone else would rather lose than use theirs.

This is another issues with counterspells; they can only be used in the moment. You must use them on cast, whereas a removal spell gives more opportunities. You can remove Ezuri to stop the counters, you can remove the Sage of Hours (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sage+of+Hours) before combat, or you can remove the Sage of Hours (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sage+of+Hours) in response to the declaration that the counters are going on.

The unfortunate thing, is that people will expect you to use your counterspells instead, so that they can save their removal. It's a valid tactic, and I do it all the time. What I do when someone makes a big play (like the Sage of Hours (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sage+of+Hours) example) and I don't want to use my removal/counter, I say something on the lines of "Okay guys, I have an answer, but it's not a good one." I try to play it off like my spell is going to have some downside for all of us, or that my answer might not even stop the combo.

But if this doesn't work, and you have first priority, you absolutely should stop the combo. You cannot rely on someone else to have an answer, because as we've already established, not enough people use removal or hate cards in their decks.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Red_Wyrm on May 17, 2019, 07:37:00 pm
Quote from: Morganator 2.0 on May 17, 2019, 07:13:42 pm
Quote from: Red_Wyrm on May 17, 2019, 05:25:34 pm
Like if Ezuri, Renegade Leader (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Ezuri%2C+Renegade+Leader) casts Sage of Hours (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sage+of+Hours), while he has 5+ experience counters, either the sage has to be countered or Ezuri or the sage must be removed before combat, preferably sage of hours (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sage+of+Hours). If I suspect my opponent has a counterspell (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell), but chooses not to use it, expecting me to counter it, I have to because he may not have a path to exile (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Path+to+Exile) in his hand, and I may not either. I don't like being forced to use my own counterspells because someone else would rather lose than use theirs.

This is another issues with counterspells; they can only be used in the moment. You must use them on cast, whereas a removal spell gives more opportunities. You can remove Ezuri to stop the counters, you can remove the Sage of Hours (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sage+of+Hours) before combat, or you can remove the Sage of Hours (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sage+of+Hours) in response to the declaration that the counters are going on.

The unfortunate thing, is that people will expect you to use your counterspells instead, so that they can save their removal. It's a valid tactic, and I do it all the time. What I do when someone makes a big play (like the Sage of Hours (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sage+of+Hours) example) and I don't want to use my removal/counter, I say something on the lines of "Okay guys, I have an answer, but it's not a good one." I try to play it off like my spell is going to have some downside for all of us, or that my answer might not even stop the combo.

But if this doesn't work, and you have first priority, you absolutely should stop the combo. You cannot rely on someone else to have an answer, because as we've already established, not enough people use removal or hate cards in their decks.

Got it. I'll play mind games (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Mind+Games).
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Aetherium Slinky on May 17, 2019, 11:42:14 pm
Ahahah I have this horrible habit of tormenting my play group with horrible deals: I just ask someone "Hey would you like me to remove specific thing X (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=X)?" and they usually say yes. ...aaand there's a major catch (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Catch) I fail to mention. Like removing a single creature by casting Damnation (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Damnation) or Cyclonic Rift (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cyclonic+Rift) and everyone just looks at me like "dude, seriously". I hope they take it as a joke but very often it's something I need to do anyway and it's fun to get them engaged and kind of endorse it, give their seal of approval to whatever I'm about to do. Admittedly it does have the side effect that they get to see the situation from my point of view: I definitely need to remove something and it's not entirely one-sided rigged to help me and bully others.

There's one other deck in my play group that I like playing against. It's a Tolaria-themed "tribal" i.e. art and characters reflect things that could be found in Tolaria (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Tolaria). (This specifically excludes all Teferi related things.) It's packed with counter spells, heavy draw and Omniscience (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Omniscience) as it's win condition. I enjoy the fact that I need to bait all the counters out before I can play my Big Thing. Are there exactly three or four counter spells in his hand? Are they universal or do they come with restrictions? Can they target abilities? Ohhh the excitement.

I like counterspells. Especially in a familiar meta where I kind of have an idea what they might want to cast. Like the time I correctly time and ruin their ramp completely because the whole chain of things they try to achieve just falls apart. I know it's not the best use of a counterspell (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Counterspell) but sometimes I counter things like Harrow (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Harrow) because damn, the value!

Which brings me to the way I assess many threats. How many turns till someone wins? If a counter to Harrow (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Harrow) delays that by 1-3 turns it's good enough. I bought myself 2 card draws, 2 land drops and time to set up. I tend to remove things before they spiral out of control.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 18, 2019, 03:30:47 am
Alright, let's try this again, giving a little more detail.
(https://i.imgur.com/mxxAfzI.jpg)

Now for the boardstate.
Mayael the Anima (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Mayael+the+Anima) (In command zone)
Tapped: Mountain (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Mountain), Forest (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Forest), Elvish Mystic (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Elvish+Mystic), Shaman of Forgotten Ways (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Shaman+of+Forgotten+Ways)
Untapped: Baneslayer Angel (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Baneslayer+Angel)
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Alesha%2C+Who+Smiles+at+Death) (on battlefield)
Tapped: Plains (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Plains), Swamp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Swamp), Mountain (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Mountain)
Untapped: Alesha, Spirit of the Labyrinth (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Spirit+of+the+Labyrinth)
Breya, Etherium Shaper (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Breya%2C+Etherium+Shaper) (in command zone)
Tapped: Island (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Island), Plains (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Plains), Fellwar Stone (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Fellwar+Stone)
Untapped: Grand Architect (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Grand+Architect), Swamp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Swamp)

(https://i.imgur.com/ECeG4ee.jpg)

Do you play Nekusar this turn, do you keep mana open for Chaos Warp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Chaos+Warp), or do you use Windfall (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Windfall) to get a better hand?
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Aetherium Slinky on May 18, 2019, 10:34:59 am
I cast Nekusar.

Reasoning:
Considering just me: During my next turn I will be able to cast Windfall (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Windfall) and Chaos Warp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Chaos+Warp). Windfall (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Windfall) with Nekusar is an extra 4-6 damage per player assuming I remove Spirit of the Labyrinth (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Spirit+of+the+Labyrinth).

Mayael isn't a real threat. Fat angel (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Angel) on the table, lots of mana but their strategy is probably to get a lot of fatties out. They're probably going at the Breya player if I keep my mouth shut. They've also missed a land drop so that pushes them down on the threat list.

Alesha's Spirit of the Labyrinth (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Spirit+of+the+Labyrinth) is a problem but right now it actually protects me because my opponents don't get the extra card draw. Then again I have no idea what other kind of creatures there are so I'd prefer to wait.

Breya player is an obvious problem. Let's say there are a generous six tutors that find Pili-Pala (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Pili-Pala) plus Pili-Pala (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Pili-Pala) the card so a 7/89=8% chance to draw something that leads into Pili-Pala (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Pili-Pala). 8% is a risk I'm willing to take. If I remove Spirit of the Labyrinth (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Spirit+of+the+Labyrinth) this chance goes up to 15% because of the extra card draw. I'm assuming that Breya doesn't have tutor in their hand already, which, of course is not the correct assumption.

Mayael is probably busy finding mana or fatties and won't really care if Nekusar is out. If anything they'll probably hope to get extra draw and hit a land. Alesha same thing, doesn't really make their play more difficult. Breya has probably a vested interest in keeping Nekusar alive (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Alive). More draw, more Pili-Pala (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Pili-Pala). Nekusar's win condition seems to be life loss so they probably count Nekusar as extra draw because they're all at 40 life. All in all there's no reason I'd lose my 5-mana investment during this round.

Finally let's see how likely it is that someone else removes Grand Architect (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Grand+Architect). Mayael might carry creature removal. All Naya colours can do this, meaning Grand Architect (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Grand+Architect) is likely to be removed by Mayael since they also see the threat. Alesha also has access to good creature removal and can have a hate bear for this situation, something like Phyrexian Revoker (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Phyrexian+Revoker) comes to mind. Never played Alesha so difficult to gauge but I'm sure there are other options, too. All in all there's a really good chance that either Mayael or Alesha will remove Grand Architect (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Grand+Architect) before it gets back to me.

Nobody is interested in removing Spirit of the Labyrinth (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Spirit+of+the+Labyrinth) (maybe Breya?) so that's probably something I'll have to do myself with Chaos Warp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Chaos+Warp).

Recap: cast Nekusar, wait, reassess situation next turn. Nobody is going to win this round, Grand Architect (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Grand+Architect) might get removed. I'm basically back in the same situation but I've got Nekusar out and I know more about the board state.

EDIT:
Chaos Orb (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Chaos+Orb) => Chaos Warp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Chaos+Warp) (derp)
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: WWolfe on May 18, 2019, 03:04:40 pm
I prefer removal over counters. Don't get me wrong, I pack a few counters but they're to protect my combo/win-cons. If the rest of the table doesn't react to stuff that hurts them, then that's their problem. Sounds harsh, but if their deckbuilding doesn't include answers then that's on them.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Soren841 on May 18, 2019, 03:19:07 pm
There are definitely more than 6 tutors that find Pili-Pala (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Pili-Pala) tho
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Firegriff on May 18, 2019, 03:33:21 pm
I would cast Nekusar.  He isn't going to be considered a threat with Spirit of the Labyrinth (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Spirit+of+the+Labyrinth) out, so opponents will likely let him slide.  Next turn, plan on Locust God coming out if nothing scarier comes around in the meantime.  Then Chaos Warp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Chaos+Warp) the Spirit of the Labyrinth (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Spirit+of+the+Labyrinth) and windfall (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Windfall) into some defensive bugs.  Megrim (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Megrim) and draw damage is icing on the cake.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Judaspriester on May 18, 2019, 03:36:49 pm
Hmm.. thats not that easy. An obvious coice would be playing Windfall (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Windfall) even with the Spirit out, because I would only lose 3 cards, but the other players would lose 5/6 cards and also lose 10/12 dmg that way. Alesha wouldn't care that much, because he gets at least his creatures back out of his graveyard. Mayael would get hurt kinda hard, because she already missed a land drop, and with her hand lost, there is a good chance, that she will drop some interesting cards. For breya its a good question. she would get hurt, but on the other hand, with blue and black, she should have access to enough stuff to get her important cards back.

Second option: Chaos Warp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Chaos+Warp). I don't really like this card, because I've already seen it making things much worse than before. the obvious coices here would be the spirit or grand architect (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Grand+Architect). the spirit counters my deck strategy, but on the other hand, he also keeps breya at bay, because her ability to draw into her combo is also limited. Besides that, I can be sure, that he will come back next turn, because Alesha attacks me to revive (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Revive) him, since i got no blocker. The Grand Architect (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Grand+Architect), well.. it's an important combo piece, but if I'll nuke it now, she will probably bring him back soon. besides that, he isn't a that big deal alone, at least at the current board state.

third option: play nekuzar. Since card draw is limited by the spirit, the other players probably doesn't care much about him on the battlefield, since he is already crippled. with the city of brass (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=City+of+Brass) in hand, this would allow me to play chaos warp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Chaos+Warp) and windfall (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Windfall) in the same turn, without relaying on my draw luck. if the amount of hand cards keep the same, it would net in 17/19 next turn. this may sound great, but also gives breya a good chance to draw removal or a tutor. Then I could exile (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Exile) the Hellkite 2 turns later and sitll haven't dealt enough damage to finish of..

fourth option: do nothing and wait. this would allow me to play chaos warp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Chaos+Warp) to interrupt something bad, but on the other hand, if I decide then not to play it (maybe one of the others solves my problems), I would have wasted a turn.

Hmm.. f*ck off, lets play the long game. I'll play Windfall (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=de&card=Windfall).
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Aetherium Slinky on May 19, 2019, 12:53:40 am
Interesting! I didn't actually look at the value of nuking hands. The sad things is Windfall (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Windfall) is a sorcery so I will have always drawn a card that turn, putting me into topdeck mode with no other ways to draw and my opponents still get to keep one card. For Breya that card could be a tutor and I would have literally zero answers. I'm sorry but I don't really like the outcome. I can't control my draws or anyone's draws at that point. Alesha will be able to reanimate (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Reanimate) the discarded things and Breya will be able to cast Breya, get two blue thopters that tap for CCCC and have two cards on their turn. Thran Dynamo (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Thran+Dynamo)? Solemn Simulacrum (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Solemn+Simulacrum)? Krark-Clan Ironworks (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Krark-Clan+Ironworks)? I don't even know what the deck runs but there are tons of CMC<5 colorless things they could cast.

I still think this is the best point to cast Nekusar. It's not an obvious threat, won't limit my options in the future (Chaos Warp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Chaos+Warp)) and in general it's efficient use of mana.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 19, 2019, 02:03:15 am
Let's break down each option.

1. Windfall (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Windfall)
So, I lied. You can't use Windfall (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Windfall) to get a better hand. Because of the Spirit of the Labyrinth (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Spirit+of+the+Labyrinth), everyone would discard their hands (10 damage to Mayael and Breya, 12 to Alesha) and then your opponents get 1 card, and you get none. You already drew a card this turn. Going into top-deck mode is a bad idea.

2. Chaos Warp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Chaos+Warp) the...
Baneslayer Angel (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Baneslayer+Angel)
This creature is not threatening. It may be the most powerful creature on the board, but that hardly matters. It isn't killing anyone any time soon. And although it doesn't matter much, Mayael is the most likely player to flip another powerful creature off of the top (more on this latter).
Shaman of Forgotten Ways (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Shaman+of+Forgotten+Ways)
This card can end games, but not any time soon. Mayael missed a land drop, and the ability requires 11 mana. Don't worry about it.
Spirit of the Labyrinth (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Spirit+of+the+Labyrinth)
Yeah, this thing has to go. It pretty much disables Nekusar's strategy. But it doesn't necessarily have to go right away. You'll have 6 mana next turn, so you'll be able to use the Chaos Warp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Chaos+Warp), and then Windfall (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Windfall).
Grand Architect (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Grand+Architect)/Pili-Pala (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Pili-Pala)
While this combo is worrisome, you don't need to worry just yet. Pili-Pala (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Pili-Pala) will enter with summoning sickness, and so can't use it's untap effect right away, so unless someone foolishly plays a haste enabler like Concordant Crossroads (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Concordant+Crossroads) or Mass Hysteria (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Mass+Hysteria), you have two turns to deal with this combo.
3. Nekusar
This is the option that I would go for. Now is a good time to build up your board. It is highly unlikely that anyone will combo next turn. And on your next turn, you'll have 6 mana to get rid of the Spirit of the Labyrinth (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Spirit+of+the+Labyrinth), and then cast Windfall (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Windfall). The following turn would be another wheel effect (Runehorn Hellkite (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Runehorn+Hellkite) if nothing else) leading to massive life-loss for your opponents (2 for every card discarded, 1 for every card drawn). However, if Breya does play the Pili-Pala (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Pili-Pala), then the removal should (sadly) go that way.

Congratulations to Firegriff and Mustakotka.

A note on Chaos Warp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Chaos+Warp)
One of the biggest concerns I've seen from Chaos Warp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Chaos+Warp) is the fear (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Fear) that it will flip into something really threatening. It can happen, but it's unlinkely. First off, a good chunk of most decks are lands, instants/sorceries, and mana ramp (let's assume about 60 to 70 cards). None of these are super threatening, so the majority of the time the card off the top is irrelevant.

The other factor is that you should be using Chaos Warp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Chaos+Warp) on the real threats. It can hit any target so it's super versatile, and because it shuffles in the removed card is harder to recur. And just look at this last example. The two targets were Spirit of the Labyrinth (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Spirit+of+the+Labyrinth) (a card that shuts down the game for you) and the Pili-Pala (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Pili-Pala) combo (a game-winning combo). So long as you use Chaos Warp (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Chaos+Warp) in situations like this, it will serve (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Serve) you well.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: WWolfe on May 25, 2019, 06:38:30 pm
A good example of bad threat assessment is a game I played in last night.

Opponent casts Grasp of Fate (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Grasp+of+Fate), targets my Viscera Seer (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Viscera+Seer) (taking away a sac outlet but not the right choice), another opponents Propaganda (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Propaganda) (not a bad choice as the casting player was playing a token deck), and the final players Rest in Peace- a horrible option and here's why...

I was playing Sidisi with a win-con on the board (Gravecrawler (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Gravecrawler) + Phyrexian Altar (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Phyrexian+Altar) + Plague Belcher (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Plague+Belcher)) and the RIP was keeping me from performing the combo. Phyrexian Altar (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Phyrexian+Altar) would have been the better choice for him to hit on me as it would have broken the combo that was on the board. Any of the 7 other choices he had for the RIP player would have been better.

Three targets, only one good choice was made.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 25, 2019, 07:10:48 pm
Oh yes, I've had this happen before too, and I briefly referenced this example earlier.

I was playing Captain Sisay (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Captain+Sisay) which wins by continuously re-casting Hope of Ghirapur (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Hope+of+Ghirapur), and drains everyone through Bontu's Monument (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Bontu%27s+Monument).

Someone else had played a Damping Sphere (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Damping+Sphere) the turn before I was going to win. The next player says "I don't like that" and uses Reclamation Sage (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Reclamation+Sage) to destroy the sphere.

I won, and the Damping Sphere (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Damping+Sphere) would have stopped me.

Remember what I said earlier?
Quote from: Morganator 2.0 on May 12, 2019, 03:18:09 am
This might sound obvious, but you should always be wary for the person who is going to combo first.
It's important. And also:
Quote from: Morganator 2.0 on May 12, 2019, 03:18:09 am
Dealing with stax
Most important thing with stax effects; if it's stopping someone else from winning, leave it alone. As annoying as Damping Sphere (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Damping+Sphere) can be, if it's stopping a combo deck from winning, leave it be.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: WWolfe on May 26, 2019, 07:05:06 am
Yep, you're spot on Morganator. I won on my next turn by spamming the combo. The other two players are sitting there just staring down the guy who cast the Grasp of Fate (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Grasp+of+Fate).

Another tip I would give is if you're not sure, ask. I've helped people multiple times figure out what threat they should remove even if it involved me losing a piece. I had an opponent today cast a Decimate (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Decimate) and wasn't sure what artifact and land to hit. It was turn 5 and I told him he was crazy if he didn't blow up my Sol Ring (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sol+Ring) and Ancient Tomb (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Ancient+Tomb) as I had access to 10 mana while no one else had more than 7 as it would even things up and slow me down.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Red_Wyrm on May 26, 2019, 07:33:15 am
Quote from: Morganator 2.0 on May 25, 2019, 07:10:48 pm
Oh yes, I've had this happen before too, and I briefly referenced this example earlier.

I was playing Captain Sisay (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Captain+Sisay) which wins by continuously re-casting Hope of Ghirapur (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Hope+of+Ghirapur), and drains everyone through Bontu's Monument (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Bontu%27s+Monument).

Someone else had played a Damping Sphere (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Damping+Sphere) the turn before I was going to win. The next player says "I don't like that" and uses Reclamation Sage (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Reclamation+Sage) to destroy the sphere.

I won, and the Damping Sphere (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Damping+Sphere) would have stopped me.

Remember what I said earlier?
Quote from: Morganator 2.0 on May 12, 2019, 03:18:09 am
This might sound obvious, but you should always be wary for the person who is going to combo first.
It's important. And also:
Quote from: Morganator 2.0 on May 12, 2019, 03:18:09 am
Dealing with stax
Most important thing with stax effects; if it's stopping someone else from winning, leave it alone. As annoying as Damping Sphere (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Damping+Sphere) can be, if it's stopping a combo deck from winning, leave it be.

Let's say it's the first time I'm seeing your captain sisay (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Captain+Sisay) deck and I am unsure of how it works. In this situation I don't know that the dampening sphere is stopping you from winning, so how do you know if a stax effect is stopping someone from winning?
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Aetherium Slinky on May 26, 2019, 01:11:24 pm
Quote from: Red_Wyrm on May 26, 2019, 07:33:15 am
Let's say it's the first time I'm seeing your captain sisay (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Captain+Sisay) deck and I am unsure of how it works. In this situation I don't know that the dampening sphere is stopping you from winning, so how do you know if a stax effect is stopping someone from winning?
I feel like this is the best argument for waiting and seeing what happens.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Soren841 on May 26, 2019, 02:20:54 pm
If the stax isn't stopping YOU from winning RIGHT NOW then leave it.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: WWolfe on May 26, 2019, 03:14:43 pm
Quote from: Soren841 on May 26, 2019, 02:20:54 pm
If the stax isn't stopping YOU from winning RIGHT NOW then leave it.

This times 100!
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 26, 2019, 04:30:52 pm
Quote from: Morganator 2.0 on May 12, 2019, 03:18:09 am
You should only remove a stax piece if it is either hurting you more than other players, or if it is directly stopping you from winning. As with combo pieces, wait for the last possible moment to remove a stax piece.

If you are also playing a deck that wins by casting a lot of spells in one turn, then yes, remove the Damping Sphere (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Damping+Sphere). But even then, time your removal so that you will be the first to take advantage of it being gone. If you are a deck that wins through combat or incremental damage, then leave it alone.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Soren841 on May 26, 2019, 04:32:07 pm
Morg updoot and comment on Sliver Hulk
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Red_Wyrm on May 26, 2019, 05:25:48 pm
Quote from: Soren841 on May 26, 2019, 02:20:54 pm
If the stax isn't stopping YOU from winning RIGHT NOW then leave it.

Gotcha. That's easy to remember.


I've never played a stax deck and never seen one played, so forgive me if this is noobish. If you play a stax card and it ends up preventing you from winning, or hurting you the most, do you remove your own piece? I would think you either rework the deck or quit magic.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 26, 2019, 06:16:08 pm
Quote from: Red_Wyrm on May 26, 2019, 05:25:48 pm
If you play a stax card and it ends up preventing you from winning, or hurting you the most, do you remove your own piece? I would think you either rework the deck or quit magic.

Rework the deck is the best option. If you're making a stax deck, you want to have some way to work around or mitigate your own stax effects.

For example, my first stax deck was Ruric Thar, the Unbowed (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Ruric+Thar%2C+the+Unbowed). I used lots of creatures for mana ramp, which meant I was less affected by cards like Winter Orb (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Winter+Orb), Magus of the Moon (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Magus+of+the+Moon), Trinisphere (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Trinisphere), and Null Rod (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Null+Rod). Because I was using stax effects that weren't hurting me, I never had a reason to remove them.

My current stax deck is Captain Sisay (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Captain+Sisay). In it, I have Gaddock Teeg (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Gaddock+Teeg), who shuts down my own combo (I can't play Paradox Engine (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Paradox+Engine)). But I do need Gaddock to deal with certain decks. My solution to this problem is by using Miren, the Moaning Well (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Miren%2C+the+Moaning+Well) to sacrifice Gaddock right before I am going to combo.

That's the main thing with building a stax deck; you need to include stax effects that will hurt your opponent's more than you, and you need to have some way to work around them if they do hurt you.
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Soren841 on May 26, 2019, 06:17:08 pm
A great example is not running fetches in a deck that runs Root Maze (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Root+Maze).. hopefully you're not more than 2 colors tho otherwise gl with that
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Morganator 2.0 on May 27, 2019, 03:24:38 pm
Some stax pieces and how to work around them

Rule of Law (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Rule+of+Law): Use this in a deck that doesn't mind casting only one spell per turn, and in a meta where you have players that cast many spells per turn. See also: Eidolon of Rhetoric (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Eidolon+of+Rhetoric), Damping Sphere (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Damping+Sphere), Ethersworn Canonist (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Ethersworn+Canonist), Arcane Laboratory (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Arcane+Laboratory)

Winter Orb (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Winter+Orb): To use Winter Orb (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Winter+Orb) effectively, you want to have a deck that already has a lot of non-land sources of mana (so, creatures or artifacts). You also need to make sure you're casting Winter Orb (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Winter+Orb) at a good time, when most of your opponents' lands are tapped. See also: Hokori, Dust Drinker (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Hokori%2C+Dust+Drinker).

Null Rod (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Null+Rod): A favorite for green decks, make sure you're not using too many artifacts as a source of mana. See also: Karn, the Great Creator (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Karn%2C+the+Great+Creator), Stony Silence (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Stony+Silence).

Cursed Totem (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Cursed+Totem): Similar to Null Rod (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Null+Rod), don't use too many creatures with activated abilities, and especially do not use if your commander has an activated ability. See also: Linvala, Keeper of Silence (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Linvala%2C+Keeper+of+Silence).

Static Orb (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Static+Orb): This one is trickier, because you need some other source to untap your mana sources. Usually, it will be commander like Teferi, Temporal Archmage (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Teferi%2C+Temporal+Archmage), Brago, King Eternal (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Brago%2C+King+Eternal), or Derevi, Empyrial Tactician (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Derevi%2C+Empyrial+Tactician).

Stasis (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Stasis): This card is usually used to soft-lock people, so you need to be able to untap one blue source a turn. The same commanders as above, and Estrid the Masked (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Estrid%2C+the+Masked) are all capable of doing this.

Rest in Peace (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Rest+in+Peace): Don't use graveyard effects. Simple. See also: Leyline of the Void (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Leyline+of+the+Void).

Back to Basics (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Back+to+Basics): Use lots of basic lands. Even if your deck is two colors, you can probably get away with using lots of basics. This card is especially good at hating on players with expensive land bases. See also: Blood Moon (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Blood+Moon), Magus of the Moon (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Magus+of+the+Moon), Ruination (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Ruination).

Trinisphere (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Trinisphere): This card isn't super great in low-powered metas, but works wonders against decks with a low curve. To mitigate it's effect on you, use lots of mana ramp, or a way of untaping your permanents. See also: Vryn Wingmare (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Vryn+Wingmare), Thalia, Guardian of Thraben (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Thalia%2C+Guardian+of+Thraben), Thorn of Amethyst (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Thorn+of+Amethyst), Sphere of Resistance (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sphere+of+Resistance).
Title: Re: Threat Assessment in Commander
Post by: Aetherium Slinky on May 28, 2019, 04:45:08 pm
I quite like running slow budget mana ("enters tapped") in some multicolored decks. Thus I 'equalize' my slow lands by adding Root Maze (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Root+Maze), Kismet (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Kismet) or Frozen Aether (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Frozen+Aether). If I'm playing slow, you're playing slow, too.

I'd also like mention psychological stax pieces like Nevinyrral's disk (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Nevinyrral%27s+Disk), Perplexing Chimera (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Perplexing+Chimera), or Oblivion Stone (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Oblivion+Stone). They stop people from committing to the board and effectively cause them to waste turns by not doing anything. These can be circumvented very easily with common removal spells like Oblivion Ring (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Oblivion+Ring). You get your things back, they don't.

One of my favourite cards that can turn a stax piece off for a while is Release to the Wind (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Release+to+the+Wind). Personally I use it to navigate the mess that Taniwha (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Taniwha), Sunder (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sunder), Shimmer (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Shimmer), Eon Hub (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Eon+Hub), and Sands of Time (https://cards.deckstats.net/magiccard.php?utf8=1&lng=en&card=Sands+of+Time) create.