It's not 3 mulligans, it's
up to. Going down to 5 is a reasonable assumption in my opinion. At least I mulligan to 5 if needed... Okay, not everyone is hunting for the
Sol Ring hand, some hands with
Sol Ring might be bad (like no lands), not everyone plays
Sol Ring on turn 1 even if they have the capability... The probability of anyone playing
Sol Ring on T1 is lower, yes. My wording was "seeing a turn 1
Sol Ring", not whether people actually play it or not.
I didn't understand the rest of your arguments except the shuffling one which sounds a little dubious at best. I know one person who doesn't shuffle properly and I've played a lot of games. The rest shuffle just fine.
Actually it does make it invalid when I just proved it. Facts are facts when someone is trying to use an "if" case scenario. While there is a probability of something happening doesn't make it so. A turn 1 sol ring also shows up less then one might expect. The instinct is "always" expect a turn 1 sol to be a powerful thing to do when in actuality it isn't "always" fact. Same thing could be said that Someone playes farseek on turn 2 while I just play a land and pass. Now that person is up 1 land and has more mana then I do come turn 3.
I'm sorry, I don't see proof of anything. Having 4 mana on turn 2 is much more potent than having 4 mana on turn 3.
Compare:
- T1: Land + Sol Ring (accumulated 2 free mana)
- T2: Land (accumulated 2 + 2 + 2 = 6 free mana
- T3: Land (accumulated 6 + 3 + 2 = 9 free mana)
- T4: Land (accumulated 9 + 4 + 2 = 15 free mana)
and:
- T1: Land (accumulated 1 free mana)
- T2: Land + Farseek (accumulated 1 free mana)
- T3: Land (accumulated 1 + 4 = 5 free mana)
- T4: Land (accumulated 5 + 5 = 10 free mana)
Assuming both players hit their 4th land drop, which is reasonable, the
Sol Ring player has had an accumulated 50% more mana to play with. How are these two scenarios comparable?
EDIT: Heck, let's throw in the lands only option.
- T1: Land (1 accumulated free mana)
- T2: Land (1 + 2 = 3 accumulated free mana)
- T3: Land (3 + 3 = 6 accumulated free mana)
- T4: Land (6 + 4 = 10 accumulated free mana)
Playing lands only is on par with playing
Farseek up until turn 4.