So just ran a 50 game test with the deck. I played an uncontested board (no spells or responses from my opponent) just to see how fast the deck can count to 20. The results were as follows:
T2 kill: 0%
T3 kill: 28%
T4 kill: 48%
T5 kill: 16%
T6+: 8%
There are some caveats with this data.
1. About half the T4 wins had the opponent on 1-3 life at the start of turn, so could have been
dead in a real game due to shocks and fetches. Same is true for the T5 wins.
2. I did mulligan hands without land, but my inexperience with sequencing and knowing what to keep and what to mulligan probably slowed some games down that could have won faster
I was able to draw some conclusions from this test on how id change the deck in future.
1.
Simian Spirit Guide was okay but generally underperformed. It allowed for some interesting starts, but the deck wants to curve out so often that the wxtra mana just went to waste. And any game with more than 1 was just too slow. I think I'll cut 2 copies in favor of more 1 drop threats.
2.
Manamorphose is the glue that makes the deck work. It makes
Goblin Bushwhacker playable, and fixes the mana made by Herbalists, all while triggering prowess for swiftspear. It can also be held as a surge enabler for an extra
Reckless Bushwhacker.
3. Hidden Herbalist, definitely worse than
Burning Tree Emissary, but does a good enough impression to get the job done. I think I'll keep all 4 copies because of the bonkers things it's able to do, though I could see going down to 3 copies.
4. Will Necatl: I thought about bringing in Necatl in place of
Narnam Renegade, but the mana base is already stretched pretty hard, but with
Manamorphose I could probably replace the 2 renegade and 2 swiftspear for a plays etc of Necatl.