the problem with Kynaios is that it's not a cEDH deck and not in a cEDH meta.
This is something I've worried about. I was always fine when the competitive league was running, because I knew that everyone was playing the deck as best as possible. The data also shows this a little. You'll notice that my competitive decks (Krenko, Edric,
Sisay) have higher win rates than my casual decks (Scarab God,
Mishra, K&T), with one exception. And that one exception is bothering me. It is quite possible that K&T is too powerful for most casual metas, but it never feels like a
landslide victory, like it sometimes does with
Sisay or Edric.
This plus table politics definitely skews the estimated win % and stuff in ways you can't really control or predict.
These don't affect the expected value. In the same way that I'm expected to get heads 50% of the time on a coin flip, or I'm expected to roll a 6 on a die 16.7% of the time, I'm expected to win a four-player game of commander 25% of the time
assuming that me winning is
determined by chance alone. Things that affect the
outcome could be a coin with two heads, a loaded die, or politics in commander; things outside the factors of chance.
But when most of my win ratios close to double what is expected, something is up. Not chance, but other factors, like deck-building, certain metas, politics, or just being a skilled commander player.