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Author Topic: Would You Guys Keep This Hand?  (Read 1723 times)

Red_Wyrm

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Would You Guys Keep This Hand?
« on: April 12, 2019, 01:17:15 am »
Okay let's say you have three lands in your opening hand: Command Tower, Terramorphic expanse (I'm poor) and a Blood Crypt
Then you have four big bombs in your hand: Omniscience, Nicol Bolas, Plansewalker, Prince of Thralls and Grave Titan

The commander is Thraximundar, so once you use terramorphic expanse, you have all three colors.

So usually I would keep a hand with three lands, especially with all of my colors, but I don't have any mana rocks or anything to play once I have dropped all my lands, not even my commander. It is not like I am 1 mana short of casting a spell and need one land in the next 4 draws, my smallest casting cost is 6 mana. (Grave Titan) so I need to either draw into more lands or mana rocks or other cards I can cast for three mana.

So this was a hand I was dealt on the "starting hand" tab of a deck I made here on deckstats, and my next three draws were in order: Temple of Malice, crumbling necropolis and Izzet signet, so I think it would have paid off, but without knowing my next draws, where do we stand?

What if I had say a mountain in my hand instead of Prince of Thralls?
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Morganator 2.0

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Re: Would You Guys Keep This Hand?
« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2019, 01:19:55 am »
I would not.

Because all your spells are expensive, you are starting the game in top-deck mode. Which is never good.

Personally (in commander) I generally don't keep a hand that has no mana ramp.

WWolfe

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Re: Would You Guys Keep This Hand?
« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2019, 01:36:30 am »
No, I wouldn't even think about it. No plays in your hand before t6 and no ramp. Like Morganator said, you're in top deck mode from your first turn.

Edit- it probably wouldn't have paid off to keep it based on the sample draw of the next three cards you listed. You would have shuffled after searching with Terramorphic Expanse so those subsequent draws would have been different.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2019, 01:41:55 am by WWolfe »
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Red_Wyrm

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Re: Would You Guys Keep This Hand?
« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2019, 02:02:44 am »
No, I wouldn't even think about it. No plays in your hand before t6 and no ramp. Like Morganator said, you're in top deck mode from your first turn.

Edit- it probably wouldn't have paid off to keep it based on the sample draw of the next three cards you listed. You would have shuffled after searching with Terramorphic Expanse so those subsequent draws would have been different.

This is an absolutely valid point, and I 100% understand.

But my deck is just as randomly shuffled before terramorphic expanse as after it, so when I am using this feature on deckstats I tend to ignore the shuffle clause and assume my deck was shuffled.

I was on the fence about this hand, but clearly that is wrong. It is just a bad hand in general.
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Loggiu

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Re: Would You Guys Keep This Hand?
« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2019, 05:04:10 am »
you're in top deck mode

Red_Wyrm

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Re: Would You Guys Keep This Hand?
« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2019, 05:09:51 am »
you're in top deck mode

Yeah that was something I didn't even realize until someone pointed it out. I always thought of top decking as having an empty hand and drawing your one card, but it makes sense that top decking can be done with a full hand of dead cards.
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Loggiu

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Re: Would You Guys Keep This Hand?
« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2019, 05:19:29 am »
my hand is 2 island, a plain, patron wizard , godhead of awe , path to exile and jace beleren , the commander is grand arbiter augustin IV and the next four cards are trhee island and a merchant scroll

Red_Wyrm

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Re: Would You Guys Keep This Hand?
« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2019, 05:24:30 am »
my hand is 2 island, a plain, patron wizard , godhead of awe , path to exile and jace beleren , the commander is grand arbiter augustin IV and the next four cards are trhee island and a merchant scroll

I would totally keep the hand. You have Jace Beleran which is a group huggy dude. I always say if anyone attakcs me or Jace, we don'r draw cards, and in the early game I am usually left alone with him. But then again, I don't think many people like grand arbiter augustin IV, which I think would be coming out turn 4.
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Loggiu

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Re: Would You Guys Keep This Hand?
« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2019, 05:53:35 am »
grand arbiter it's horrible  ;D uw also azorius also advisor also assassinated...

Loggiu

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Re: Would You Guys Keep This Hand?
« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2019, 05:57:27 am »
yeah probably turn 4, yes i don't know what's against me but probably turn four

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Re: Would You Guys Keep This Hand?
« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2019, 10:43:22 am »
Looking at this from a statistical point of view: being short on spells is better than being short on lands (if you need to choose) because usually there are more spells than lands in your deck. Idk if you guys watch Command Zone but they actually did the math on this so it's not just my gut feeling about this: winning players tend to have most land in play. That doesn't really imply causation but the very least it makes sense: hitting your land drops means cumulatively more mana throughout the game. Can you use it? Don't know but that's why I like to include mana sinks (Gemstone Array) that let me get some value from my mana even if I don't have any spells to cast.

So no, I would not keep OP's hand. I would keep Loggiu's hand because there's a removal spell and a draw engine that I can cast with the lands I have in my hand. The only thing missing from that hand is a good ramp spell or a mana rock which won't be a problem unless your opponents' decks are significantly more powerful and combo-y in noncreature design space. Were that the case I'd consider a mulligan and hope for a faster hand 'cause gotta get that tax out fast.
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Re: Would You Guys Keep This Hand?
« Reply #11 on: April 12, 2019, 03:43:47 pm »
I had a post typed up but it seems to have disappeared, essentially the consensus is that we wouldn't keep that hand that we have several reasons as to why.
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Red_Wyrm

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Re: Would You Guys Keep This Hand?
« Reply #12 on: April 12, 2019, 08:09:54 pm »
I had a post typed up but it seems to have disappeared, essentially the consensus is that we wouldn't keep that hand that we have several reasons as to why.

Your post didn't disappear, unless you made a different one:

No, I wouldn't even think about it. No plays in your hand before t6 and no ramp. Like Morganator said, you're in top deck mode from your first turn.

Edit- it probably wouldn't have paid off to keep it based on the sample draw of the next three cards you listed. You would have shuffled after searching with Terramorphic Expanse so those subsequent draws would have been different.

About the lands thing and the command zone, I am not sure how much the data is true for other play groups. They took data from recorded games, and people that record games are usually better than your typical Joe. They received 0 data from any of my games or my playgroup and this is true for probably all of us, so they don't know anything about our individual metas. With that being said, I do agree that more lands=better chance to win.
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Loggiu

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Re: Would You Guys Keep This Hand?
« Reply #13 on: April 12, 2019, 11:12:48 pm »
Looking at this from a statistical point of view: being short on spells is better than being short on lands (if you need to choose) because usually there are more spells than lands in your deck. Idk if you guys watch Command Zone but they actually did the math on this so it's not just my gut feeling about this: winning players tend to have most land in play. That doesn't really imply causation but the very least it makes sense: hitting your land drops means cumulatively more mana throughout the game. Can you use it? Don't know but that's why I like to include mana sinks (Gemstone Array) that let me get some value from my mana even if I don't have any spells to cast.

So no, I would not keep OP's hand. I would keep Loggiu's hand because there's a removal spell and a draw engine that I can cast with the lands I have in my hand. The only thing missing from that hand is a good ramp spell or a mana rock which won't be a problem unless your opponents' decks are significantly more powerful and combo-y in noncreature design space. Were that the case I'd consider a mulligan and hope for a faster hand 'cause gotta get that tax out fast.

But I got grand arbiter augustin iv as ramp part

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Re: Would You Guys Keep This Hand?
« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2019, 04:28:52 am »
This thread is an absolute mess. It seems like there are two conversations going on at once. I'll see if I can break this down.

But first, there is something we need to get out of the way. When choosing a starting hand, you don't get to see your next three draws. So to settle the argument on whether to keep a hand or not, the decision needs to be independent of what you would have drawn.

Now to break this down.

Scenario 1: Red_Wyrm
Commander: Thraximundar

Here's my logic for not keeping this hand. With no early turn plays (no mana ramp or card advantage) your opponents will have a huge advantage over you. Even if you can get to the 6 mana to start casting stuff, it's too little, too late. You are starting the game in top-deck mode. Not good.

By looking at your list for Thraximundar (http://deck.tk/7uno54W6) it seems like the goal is to make sure that your opponents don't have any creatures to attack with, and then you win with a big bomb... In that order. If you keep this hand, you're starting with the bomb, and then struggling to find a way to control your opponents' board state. Your first priority should be to set up your boardstate, so you can ready to begin control phase (AKA, start the game with mana ramp and draw engines).

Scenario 2: Loggiu
Commander: Grand Arbiter Augustin IV

So this hand I would actually keep. You may not have any mana ramp, but you have responses to your opponents (Path to Exile, Patron Wizard) and card advantage (Jace Beleren). I couldn't find your list, but I'm assuming that the goal is to gradually stax your opponents until you can build a combo. This works then. You have enough to be able to stop your opponents in the early game, you can build into Augustin, and then you still have a draw source so you can continue to lay down the stax into the mid and late game.

Now to talk about my favorite thing Deckstats has to offer: the stats!

I would like to see the stats that The Command Zone has (I refuse to dig through YouTube videos looking for it). What was the value of the correlation coefficient (>0.70 is a fairly good correlation), what was their sample size, what were their error margins, and how did they measure which decks did better?

Lands alone are also a poor measurement. Mana sources would be better. I tend to have less lands then most other players (I don't use Cultivate or Kodama's Reach) by my win ratio is abnormally high. The really important factors are what the power level of the decks are, and how skilled of a player you are.