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Would You Guys Keep This Hand?

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Aetherium Slinky:
Looking at this from a statistical point of view: being short on spells is better than being short on lands (if you need to choose) because usually there are more spells than lands in your deck. Idk if you guys watch Command Zone but they actually did the math on this so it's not just my gut feeling about this: winning players tend to have most land in play. That doesn't really imply causation but the very least it makes sense: hitting your land drops means cumulatively more mana throughout the game. Can you use it? Don't know but that's why I like to include mana sinks (Gemstone Array) that let me get some value from my mana even if I don't have any spells to cast.

So no, I would not keep OP's hand. I would keep Loggiu's hand because there's a removal spell and a draw engine that I can cast with the lands I have in my hand. The only thing missing from that hand is a good ramp spell or a mana rock which won't be a problem unless your opponents' decks are significantly more powerful and combo-y in noncreature design space. Were that the case I'd consider a mulligan and hope for a faster hand 'cause gotta get that tax out fast.

WWolfe:
I had a post typed up but it seems to have disappeared, essentially the consensus is that we wouldn't keep that hand that we have several reasons as to why.

Red_Wyrm:

--- Quote from: WWolfe on April 12, 2019, 03:43:47 pm ---I had a post typed up but it seems to have disappeared, essentially the consensus is that we wouldn't keep that hand that we have several reasons as to why.

--- End quote ---

Your post didn't disappear, unless you made a different one:

No, I wouldn't even think about it. No plays in your hand before t6 and no ramp. Like Morganator said, you're in top deck mode from your first turn.

Edit- it probably wouldn't have paid off to keep it based on the sample draw of the next three cards you listed. You would have shuffled after searching with Terramorphic Expanse so those subsequent draws would have been different.

About the lands thing and the command zone, I am not sure how much the data is true for other play groups. They took data from recorded games, and people that record games are usually better than your typical Joe. They received 0 data from any of my games or my playgroup and this is true for probably all of us, so they don't know anything about our individual metas. With that being said, I do agree that more lands=better chance to win.

Loggiu:

--- Quote from: MustaKotka on April 12, 2019, 10:43:22 am ---Looking at this from a statistical point of view: being short on spells is better than being short on lands (if you need to choose) because usually there are more spells than lands in your deck. Idk if you guys watch Command Zone but they actually did the math on this so it's not just my gut feeling about this: winning players tend to have most land in play. That doesn't really imply causation but the very least it makes sense: hitting your land drops means cumulatively more mana throughout the game. Can you use it? Don't know but that's why I like to include mana sinks (Gemstone Array) that let me get some value from my mana even if I don't have any spells to cast.

So no, I would not keep OP's hand. I would keep Loggiu's hand because there's a removal spell and a draw engine that I can cast with the lands I have in my hand. The only thing missing from that hand is a good ramp spell or a mana rock which won't be a problem unless your opponents' decks are significantly more powerful and combo-y in noncreature design space. Were that the case I'd consider a mulligan and hope for a faster hand 'cause gotta get that tax out fast.

--- End quote ---

But I got grand arbiter augustin iv as ramp part

Morganator 2.0:
This thread is an absolute mess. It seems like there are two conversations going on at once. I'll see if I can break this down.

But first, there is something we need to get out of the way. When choosing a starting hand, you don't get to see your next three draws. So to settle the argument on whether to keep a hand or not, the decision needs to be independent of what you would have drawn.

Now to break this down.
Scenario 1: Red_Wyrm
Commander: Thraximundar

* Command Tower
* Terramorphic Expanse
* Blood Crypt
* Omniscience
* Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker
* Prince of Thralls
* Grave Titan
Here's my logic for not keeping this hand. With no early turn plays (no mana ramp or card advantage) your opponents will have a huge advantage over you. Even if you can get to the 6 mana to start casting stuff, it's too little, too late. You are starting the game in top-deck mode. Not good.

By looking at your list for Thraximundar (http://deck.tk/7uno54W6) it seems like the goal is to make sure that your opponents don't have any creatures to attack with, and then you win with a big bomb... In that order. If you keep this hand, you're starting with the bomb, and then struggling to find a way to control your opponents' board state. Your first priority should be to set up your boardstate, so you can ready to begin control phase (AKA, start the game with mana ramp and draw engines).
Scenario 2: Loggiu
Commander: Grand Arbiter Augustin IV

* Island
* Island
* Plains
* Patron Wizard
* Godhead of Awe
* Path to Exile
* Jace Beleren
So this hand I would actually keep. You may not have any mana ramp, but you have responses to your opponents (Path to Exile, Patron Wizard) and card advantage (Jace Beleren). I couldn't find your list, but I'm assuming that the goal is to gradually stax your opponents until you can build a combo. This works then. You have enough to be able to stop your opponents in the early game, you can build into Augustin, and then you still have a draw source so you can continue to lay down the stax into the mid and late game.
Now to talk about my favorite thing Deckstats has to offer: the stats!

I would like to see the stats that The Command Zone has (I refuse to dig through YouTube videos looking for it). What was the value of the correlation coefficient (>0.70 is a fairly good correlation), what was their sample size, what were their error margins, and how did they measure which decks did better?

Lands alone are also a poor measurement. Mana sources would be better. I tend to have less lands then most other players (I don't use Cultivate or Kodama's Reach) by my win ratio is abnormally high. The really important factors are what the power level of the decks are, and how skilled of a player you are.

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