English-language Forums > Commander Discussion
Would You Guys Keep This Hand?
WWolfe:
Very good read Morgantor! Many props for taking the time to do that.
Morganator 2.0:
So couple things.
The statistics part has gotten off topic from "should you keep this hand". I meant to make this a new topic already, but I messed up. So I'm going to that tonight, along with the analysis of the best color.
Which gets to my next problem: I don't know how to analysis this.
I'm not incapable, I just don't know how I should go about it. Should I compare the total win rates of each color (grouping together all red decks, all white decks, etc.) Or should I compare each color pair as it's own group (Boros versus Izzet vs mono-black etc.)?
How do you think I should do this?
Soren841:
I think we should go with what everyone knows.. blue, green, black, red, white more or less in that order :P
WWolfe:
I'd go with color pairings but that opens up 31 potential pairings to track (32 if you include colorless).
crimsonking:
Hi all,
I hope not to jump into this conversation too late.
The short answer to your question is: "No, I won't keep that hand."
A more articulated answer would be: "It depends..."
It depends on what you're playing. You've already said you're playing Thraximundar, this gives some information about your deck but not all of it.
Since you're not playing green, I suppose you don't have a lot of ramp apart from some mana rock, and from the cards you named I could infer your mana curve is quite high, but these are just suppositions.
For instance, you could be heavy on cheap reanimation spells and be interested in discarding Prince of Thralls to later cast Animate Dead on it and start some recursion chain or whatever.
While the number of lands is a good rule of thumb, and I would normally keep a 3-lands hand, a more accurate criterion would be the amount of plays that hand is actually capable of.
For instance, I will surely keep a hand with only 1 Plains and a Land Tax, or a 2-lands hand with Sensei's Divining Top, no matter what.
Moreover, if my deck is heavy on lands, I would be much eager to mulligan a 2-lands hand because I'm likely to see more lands than that.
Conversely, if my mana base is tight, I would keep even if I'm on the fences, because I could easily draw a 1-land hand instead.
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