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Would You Guys Keep This Hand?

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--- Quote from: Morganator 2.0 on April 13, 2019, 04:28:52 am ---Now to talk about my favorite thing Deckstats has to offer: the stats!

I would like to see the stats that The Command Zone has (I refuse to dig through YouTube videos looking for it). What was the value of the correlation coefficient (>0.70 is a fairly good correlation), what was their sample size, what were their error margins, and how did they measure which decks did better?

--- End quote ---

Ok, so this link leads to the analyst's own page: https://public.tableau.com/profile/andrew.greene#!/vizhome/CommanderStatistics/Title
Andrew Greene is a statistician the Command Zone hired for this purpose. They manually sifted through 300 commander games and looked at various variables and correlations in the data. The only way to get all the conclusions is to actually watch the videos (sorry), but the raw data dump is linked on Andrew's page. Here's the link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10c7mflt6FJ253rtKeFAbQhPT282JDzJ6BcwrOV5MIzo/edit#gid=0

Just by looking at the data dump you can see they tracked a lot of things. Their sample is obviously a little skewed because all the games as far as I understood were recorded games, which means they were played by a small group of people. This is not a cumulative archive of all games played since the beginning of time but the good thing is that we can go back and verify every data point from the recordings.

The way they did the conclusions were mostly in terms of win percentages. This means that in four-way games their base line was always 25% and they looked at things like land count in the deck, land count at the end of the game, T1 Sol Ring, colors, deck cost and stuff like that. Then the charts would display an increase of decrease in percentage points compared to the 25% base line.

TL;DR n=316

Another thing I thought about while looking at their stats is that their average price of deck that wins is likely skewed. Some of the videos used are budget challenge episodes. Even if this is just 20 of the 300 games, that's 20 games out of the 300 where the value of the winning deck would be drastically lower than the others, thus bringing the average down.


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