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Breaking down The Command Zone Stats

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Soren841:

--- Quote from: Red_Wyrm on April 17, 2019, 06:06:35 am ---
--- Quote --- Side note, I do add the probabilities together right
--- End quote ---

It is funny how numbers work sometimes. Like a coin coming up heads/tails is 50/50, but if you get heads the first flip, it doesn't make the odds of the next flip being tails 100%. It is still 50/50 because the previous flip(s) don't affect the last one(s), but when drawing a deck, each draw does affect the probably of the next card being. For example, we have a two card deck with an ace of spades and ace of hearts. The probability that the first card drawn is an ace of spades is 50/50. If we draw the first card, regardless of what it is, we know what the next card will be (or rather won't be, and since it is a two card deck, we can use deductive reasoning because we is smart.)

--- End quote ---

It's the total probability of drawing it BY a certain turn. For the probability of drawing it ON a certain turn you don't add them, but u would add them to see the total probability of having drawn it by that turn.

Morganator 2.0:
Non-combat non-combo is exactly like Purphoros (that was even the example that was used). It could also be something like Gray Merchant of Asphodel.

And the "Other" category is a card like Felidar Sovereign or Helix Pinnacle. It's worrisome that those were the examples used instead of Laboratory Maniac and Approach of the Second Sun.

Soren841:
I mean I have no doubt they're completely casual decks..

Red_Wyrm:

--- Quote from: Morganator 2.0 on April 17, 2019, 04:34:57 pm ---Non-combat non-combo is exactly like Purphoros (that was even the example that was used). It could also be something like Gray Merchant of Asphodel.

And the "Other" category is a card like Felidar Sovereign or Helix Pinnacle. It's worrisome that those were the examples used instead of Laboratory Maniac and Approach of the Second Sun.

--- End quote ---

Isnt laboratory maniac a combo win condition? Or I guess by combo you guys mean specifically infinite combos instead of like some doomsday pile combo.

Morganator 2.0:


I can't believe this.

I can't believe how long it took for me to figure this out.

You want to see what overthinking something looks like, scroll up to the top of this page and re-read all of it. I completely overthought all of this. Had I just remembered my first day of stats class, none of this would have happened. This is literally the first thing you learn.

Let me explain...

The first thing you learn about in statistics is the difference between a sample, and the population. The population is everything. If you are looking at the average height of people worldwide, the population is everyone. Every person on Earth. If you are looking at the average height of people in the United States, then the population is everyone living in the United States. And if you are examining the win percentages of commander games, the population is every possible game you could ever have. Every commander, every deck variation that commander could have, every possible combination of decks that could go against each other, and every possible outcome of those games.

As you can imagine, it is impossible (or at least hugely impractical) to measure the population.

So instead, you take a sample. The sample is where you only measure a group people, or you only look at a some commander games, not all of them. But with a good enough sample, you can accurately estimate the properties of the population. Now I thought that with 304 commander games, the Command Zone had a good sample size. And they do; 300 or so games is a very good sample. I've said this already.

Where I messed up, is that I thought that the sample was estimating all commander games in existence. But I watched a few of the games, I saw the decks that were being used. And then it hit me:

These are YouTube videos, they are being done for entertainment. That's why combat damage was the most common win condition; watching someone win with a combo is boring, but with combat damage, it's more entertaining to see someone pull ahead. That's why Helix Pinnacle is a more common win condition than Approach of the Second Sun; it's more entertaining to watch. Those 304 games aren't a sample of all possible commander games, they are only a sample of the possible games made by YouTubers.

I can't believe I didn't think of this sooner.


Summary

Wrapping this up now, I'm not going to spend any more time on it.


* All results for The Command Zone's stats were found to be insignificant. Just because the correlation coefficient was -0.19, doesn't mean that Sol Ring decreases your win chance.
* None of the results found by The Command Zone will reflect your games. I mean, they might, but it's not likely.
Right, I'm going to lay of the stats for a bit now. I'll wait until something else catches my eye.

So, give it an hour.

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