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Breaking down The Command Zone Stats

**Soren841**:

Speaking of stats, the probability calculator on here sucks. For a 1 of in EDH it goes 7/100 for the probability in the opening hand, and adds 1/100 for each subsequent turn. Not only are there only 99 cards in the actual deck, but the denominator decreases by 1 each time. For example, It says a 7% chance of drawing a card in the opening hand. Well I did the math and it's actually 7.3% It also says that there's a 17% chance for turn 10. Well I did the math again ((1/99)+(1/98)+(1/97)+(1/96)+(1/95)+(1/94)+(1/93)+(1/92)+(1/91)+(1/90)+(1/89)+(1/88)+(1/87)+(1/86)+(1/85)+(1/84)+(1/83)) and it's actually 17.5%

p.s. I hope Nils reads this and gets a real hypergeometric calculator put into deckstats.

p.p.s. this is obviously nothing compared to Morganator's math but I found this very annoying

p.p.p.s. correct me if this is completely wrong but the numbers are close so I'm gonna assume it is right. I hope I haven't forgotten basic math bc it hasn't been THAT long.

**Morganator 2.0**:

--- Quote from: Soren841 on April 17, 2019, 04:00:58 am ---Speaking of stats, the probability calculator on here sucks. For a 1 of in EDH it goes 7/100 for the probability in the opening hand, and adds 1/100 for each subsequent turn. Not only are there only 99 cards in the actual deck, but the denominator decreases by 1 each time. For example, It says a 7% chance of drawing a card in the opening hand. Well I did the math and it's actually 7.3% It also says that there's a 17% chance for turn 10. Well I did the math again ((1/99)+(1/98)+(1/97)+(1/96)+(1/95)+(1/94)+(1/93)+(1/92)+(1/91)+(1/90)+(1/89)+(1/88)+(1/87)+(1/86)+(1/85)+(1/84)+(1/83)) and it's actually 17.5%

p.s. I hope Nils reads this and gets a real hypergeometric calculator put into deckstats.

--- End quote ---

I noticed this a while ago, but I didn't think that there were this many people that cared about statistics. The hypergeometric calculator is fine, but with commander decks, it actually counts the commander(s) as being cards you could possibly draw. I've wondered if this is why so many people put their commanders in the side board.

**Soren841**:

It's not even just the out of 100. Even with that, it should add (1/10)+(1/99) etc for the statistics but it just multiplies 1/100 by however many cards have been drawn, which is NOT how it works.

Side note, I do add the probabilities together right.. lol I despise stats

**dokepa**:

I think I just watched "A beautiful mind" on paper ;D ;D , but 1 quick question , I might have missed this in the previous posts , is this all based off 1 vs 1 or 3 player , 4 player ect and how much would that alter all this information the more or less people playing when the data was recorded ?

**Red_Wyrm**:

--- Quote ---The more I see of these graphs, the less convinced I am that these are well-tuned decks. No way does combat damage do better than combo.

--- End quote ---

Yeah I agree with you here Morgantor. From my interactions with you guys about the more competitive side of EDH, I have noticed that all these videos of EDH games are casual players with casual level decks. The only reason they might be better than other casual player decks is because they have all 10 original duals, and they have force of will, etc.

--- Quote --- p.p.s. this is obviously nothing compared to Morganator's math but I found this very annoying

--- End quote ---

Haha. You said P P.

--- Quote --- Side note, I do add the probabilities together right

--- End quote ---

It is funny how numbers work sometimes. Like a coin coming up heads/tails is 50/50, but if you get heads the first flip, it doesn't make the odds of the next flip being tails 100%. It is still 50/50 because the previous flip(s) don't affect the last one(s), but when drawing a deck, each draw does affect the probably of the next card being. For example, we have a two card deck with an ace of spades and ace of hearts. The probability that the first card drawn is an ace of spades is 50/50. If we draw the first card, regardless of what it is, we know what the next card will be (or rather won't be, and since it is a two card deck, we can use deductive reasoning because we is smart.)

--- Quote --- is this all based off 1 vs 1 or 3 player , 4 player

--- End quote ---

All the data from the command zone episode, which is what this thread is about, (See, staying on topic Morgantor, proud of me?) was from a 4 player game if I am not mistaken.

Okay, so I couldn't figure out how to quote the image, without getting the entire post, so I cheated and took a screenshot.

So what is non combat no combo? Is that killing with an ability like purphoros, god of the forge, with his ETB effect?

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