Threat Assessment in Commander

[Soren841]

Having answers is against the spirit of EDH !!! /s

[Morganator 2.0]

Sad fact...a lot of players don't pack enough removal and counters so you will find yourself in the position- more times than you should- that you will be the only one with answers.

This is why the first thing I went over was deck-building. You won't be able to answer threats if you don't... well... have answers. You need to have an at least decent removal package. During game play, you also need to leave up mana for your removal spells, but this can slow down your ability to build a boardstate. This is also what I plan on making the next test about; deciding on when you should answer threats, or when you should focus on yourself.

[Red_Wyrm]

Having answers is against the spirit of EDH !!! /s

I feel like this was unnecessary.

In my own personal experience, I am the only one who runs counterspells, and my brother (but thats because I build his decks) except for when I am about to win. I cast Jin-Gitaxias? Nope disallow. Cyclonic rift, swan song.

I say this jokingly, but this is exactly how it happens. I cast both Jin and cyclonic rift before my opponent discarded with the intentions of making them discard their entire board, and they both got countered by the same person (there were only myself and him left.)  Any advice on how I can not waste my counterspells if I know my opponents are carrying them too? Usually when I counter something, it is something that would be hurting everyone, so they have a reason to counter it too, but they know I won't let it resolve. It isn't like I jump up and say NO I COUNTERSPELL before there is a chance for the proper sequence of priority. Most of the time I have the most control, and my opponents know this based on my general. Like if I have krenko they know I am not counterspelling stuff, but Sen Triplets/zedru/Thraximundar is totally different.

[Soren841]

Definitely not unnecessary. It's sad but people do think that. They think EDH should just be for splashy plays that no one stops.

[Judaspriester]

Having answers is against the spirit of EDH !!! /s

I feel like this was unnecessary.

In my own personal experience, I am the only one who runs counterspells, and my brother (but thats because I build his decks) except for when I am about to win. I cast Jin-Gitaxias? Nope disallow. Cyclonic rift, swan song.

I say this jokingly, but this is exactly how it happens. I cast both Jin and cyclonic rift before my opponent discarded with the intentions of making them discard their entire board, and they both got countered by the same person (there were only myself and him left.)  Any advice on how I can not waste my counterspells if I know my opponents are carrying them too? Usually when I counter something, it is something that would be hurting everyone, so they have a reason to counter it too, but they know I won't let it resolve. It isn't like I jump up and say NO I COUNTERSPELL before there is a chance for the proper sequence of priority. Most of the time I have the most control, and my opponents know this based on my general. Like if I have krenko they know I am not counterspelling stuff, but Sen Triplets/zedru/Thraximundar is totally different.

Hmm.. what about using this knowledge about your playgroup to abuse it? Build one/some decks that f*ck the table up, unless they play some interactions.
Here are 2 possible outcomes (maybe one is folowed by the other):
- alot of complains about the deck(s) because its "unfair"
- the others start adding at least some more removal


I've sometimes got the same problem with my muldrotha deck. I play it "permanents only", which means I get everything back, unless there is some graveyard hate. Then an other player complains, that he doesn't need to play with his deck, since he has no graveyard hate included. if we agree to play anyway, he goes ultra agressive against me, mostly ignoring the board state of the other players, because he's afraid he can't stop me later on. But on the other hand, he doesn't add graveyard hate, which would give him a chance to solve this issue.

[Morganator 2.0]

Any advice on how I can not waste my counterspells if I know my opponents are carrying them too?

A counterspell war is usually a bad idea. Counterspells are already card disadvantage, so if you're going to counter a counterspell, it better be for a game winning play. There are three things you can do instead.

Anti-counters
Adjust to your meta. Use stuff that prevents or discourages counterspells. A few of my favorites:

• Ruric Thar, the Unbowed (works best as commander, not so much in the 99)
• Vexing Shusher
• City of Solitude
• Dosan the Falling Leaf
• Grand Abolisher
• Defense Grid

Out-value
Have strong enough card advantage that you can afford to have some stuff get countered. This works especially well if your opponents are bad at threat assessment, and will counter whatever you play. It becomes very easy to bait them.

Recursion
A derivative of out-value. You'll be fine with people countering/removing your stuff if you can get it back later. Be careful though; a strategy like this can be detrimental to card advantage, unless your commander is the source of recursion (Like Muldrotha, the Gravetide or Tasigur, the Golden Fang).

[Red_Wyrm]

Having answers is against the spirit of EDH !!! /s

I feel like this was unnecessary.

In my own personal experience, I am the only one who runs counterspells, and my brother (but thats because I build his decks) except for when I am about to win. I cast Jin-Gitaxias? Nope disallow. Cyclonic rift, swan song.

I say this jokingly, but this is exactly how it happens. I cast both Jin and cyclonic rift before my opponent discarded with the intentions of making them discard their entire board, and they both got countered by the same person (there were only myself and him left.)  Any advice on how I can not waste my counterspells if I know my opponents are carrying them too? Usually when I counter something, it is something that would be hurting everyone, so they have a reason to counter it too, but they know I won't let it resolve. It isn't like I jump up and say NO I COUNTERSPELL before there is a chance for the proper sequence of priority. Most of the time I have the most control, and my opponents know this based on my general. Like if I have krenko they know I am not counterspelling stuff, but Sen Triplets/zedru/Thraximundar is totally different.

Hmm.. what about using this knowledge about your playgroup to abuse it? Build one/some decks that f*ck the table up, unless they play some interactions.
Here are 2 possible outcomes (maybe one is folowed by the other):
- alot of complains about the deck(s) because its "unfair"
- the others start adding at least some more removal


I've sometimes got the same problem with my muldrotha deck. I play it "permanents only", which means I get everything back, unless there is some graveyard hate. Then an other player complains, that he doesn't need to play with his deck, since he has no graveyard hate included. if we agree to play anyway, he goes ultra agressive against me, mostly ignoring the board state of the other players, because he's afraid he can't stop me later on. But on the other hand, he doesn't add graveyard hate, which would give him a chance to solve this issue.

I like this idea, and I have started including silver bullets to take care of certain specific decks that are just too much, but they are widely frowned upon. I don't get why I m not allowed to take advantage of my low curve and play cards like Armageddon, but you can take advantage of your devotion to black with nykthos and cast exsanguinate for 30+. Oops thats a different topic.

So I've started to include stax cards like stony silence or cards like Erebos, God of the dead since EVERYONE except me has a lifegain deck, or The Immortal Sun against superfriends but everyone always complains that isnt fair. I've started to take this view point: If they quit and cry, I've eliminated a player. It is their fault if they don't wanna adapt to the meta and adjust their decks to fight my hate cards.

I do have decks that take advantage of the lack of removal, and my maelstrom Wanderer is explosive, but it turns into archenemy. My opponent cast Armageddon while another person had avacyn, angel of hope out just to spite me. (But remember I am not allowed to play Armageddon, perhaps because they cry about being the victim of it, and I don't, maybe I'll start acting like a two year old) I still won.

TLDR; The first thing happened:

-alot of complains about the deck(s) because its "unfair"

I am just waiting for the second to happen, if it ever will:

- the others start adding at least some more removal

Morganator,

I don't so much want counterspell hate but I want other people to use their counterspells to answer threats.

Like if Ezuri, Renegade Leader casts Sage of Hours, while he has 5+ experience counters, either the sage has to be countered or Ezuri or the sage must be removed before combat, preferably sage of hours. If I suspect my opponent has a counterspell, but chooses not to use it, expecting me to counter it, I have to because he may not have a path to exile in his hand, and I may not either. I don't like being forced to use my own counterspells because someone else would rather lose than use theirs.

[Red_Wyrm]

Definitely not unnecessary. It's sad but people do think that. They think EDH should just be for splashy plays that no one stops.

Yeah no one likes counterspells. Someone sits and does nothing until turn 6 or 7, dropping something like Avacyn, Angel of hope, or Storm Herd, and gets upset when it gets counterspelled because their deck is, well, poorly made.

[Morganator 2.0]

Like if Ezuri, Renegade Leader casts Sage of Hours, while he has 5+ experience counters, either the sage has to be countered or Ezuri or the sage must be removed before combat, preferably sage of hours. If I suspect my opponent has a counterspell, but chooses not to use it, expecting me to counter it, I have to because he may not have a path to exile in his hand, and I may not either. I don't like being forced to use my own counterspells because someone else would rather lose than use theirs.

This is another issues with counterspells; they can only be used in the moment. You must use them on cast, whereas a removal spell gives more opportunities. You can remove Ezuri to stop the counters, you can remove the Sage of Hours before combat, or you can remove the Sage of Hours in response to the declaration that the counters are going on.

The unfortunate thing, is that people will expect you to use your counterspells instead, so that they can save their removal. It's a valid tactic, and I do it all the time. What I do when someone makes a big play (like the Sage of Hours example) and I don't want to use my removal/counter, I say something on the lines of "Okay guys, I have an answer, but it's not a good one." I try to play it off like my spell is going to have some downside for all of us, or that my answer might not even stop the combo.

But if this doesn't work, and you have first priority, you absolutely should stop the combo. You cannot rely on someone else to have an answer, because as we've already established, not enough people use removal or hate cards in their decks.

[Red_Wyrm]

Like if Ezuri, Renegade Leader casts Sage of Hours, while he has 5+ experience counters, either the sage has to be countered or Ezuri or the sage must be removed before combat, preferably sage of hours. If I suspect my opponent has a counterspell, but chooses not to use it, expecting me to counter it, I have to because he may not have a path to exile in his hand, and I may not either. I don't like being forced to use my own counterspells because someone else would rather lose than use theirs.

This is another issues with counterspells; they can only be used in the moment. You must use them on cast, whereas a removal spell gives more opportunities. You can remove Ezuri to stop the counters, you can remove the Sage of Hours before combat, or you can remove the Sage of Hours in response to the declaration that the counters are going on.

The unfortunate thing, is that people will expect you to use your counterspells instead, so that they can save their removal. It's a valid tactic, and I do it all the time. What I do when someone makes a big play (like the Sage of Hours example) and I don't want to use my removal/counter, I say something on the lines of "Okay guys, I have an answer, but it's not a good one." I try to play it off like my spell is going to have some downside for all of us, or that my answer might not even stop the combo.

But if this doesn't work, and you have first priority, you absolutely should stop the combo. You cannot rely on someone else to have an answer, because as we've already established, not enough people use removal or hate cards in their decks.

Got it. I'll play mind games.

[Aetherium Slinky]

Ahahah I have this horrible habit of tormenting my play group with horrible deals: I just ask someone "Hey would you like me to remove specific thing X?" and they usually say yes. ...aaand there's a major catch I fail to mention. Like removing a single creature by casting Damnation or Cyclonic Rift and everyone just looks at me like "dude, seriously". I hope they take it as a joke but very often it's something I need to do anyway and it's fun to get them engaged and kind of endorse it, give their seal of approval to whatever I'm about to do. Admittedly it does have the side effect that they get to see the situation from my point of view: I definitely need to remove something and it's not entirely one-sided rigged to help me and bully others.

There's one other deck in my play group that I like playing against. It's a Tolaria-themed "tribal" i.e. art and characters reflect things that could be found in Tolaria. (This specifically excludes all Teferi related things.) It's packed with counter spells, heavy draw and Omniscience as it's win condition. I enjoy the fact that I need to bait all the counters out before I can play my Big Thing. Are there exactly three or four counter spells in his hand? Are they universal or do they come with restrictions? Can they target abilities? Ohhh the excitement.

I like counterspells. Especially in a familiar meta where I kind of have an idea what they might want to cast. Like the time I correctly time and ruin their ramp completely because the whole chain of things they try to achieve just falls apart. I know it's not the best use of a counterspell but sometimes I counter things like Harrow because damn, the value!

Which brings me to the way I assess many threats. How many turns till someone wins? If a counter to Harrow delays that by 1-3 turns it's good enough. I bought myself 2 card draws, 2 land drops and time to set up. I tend to remove things before they spiral out of control.

[Morganator 2.0]

Alright, let's try this again, giving a little more detail.

• You are playing Nekusar, the Mindrazer. The deck wins by causing your opponents to draw cards, and lose life because of it.
• It is your turn 4 (you went first) and you just played a land.
• No one has lost life yet.
• This is your hand (with Nekusar in the command zone):

Now for the boardstate.
Mayael the Anima (In command zone)
Tapped: Mountain, Forest, Elvish Mystic, Shaman of Forgotten Ways
Untapped: Baneslayer Angel

• Deck wins with powerful creatures.
• Mayael missed a land drop.
• 5 cards in hand.

Alesha, Who Smiles at Death (on battlefield)
Tapped: Plains, Swamp, Mountain
Untapped: Alesha, Spirit of the Labyrinth

• This is a hate-bear deck. Uses low-cost creatures as stax pieces, that Alesha can recur.
• Spirit of the Labyrinth shuts down Nekusar's strategy.
• 6 cards in hand.

Breya, Etherium Shaper (in command zone)
Tapped: Island, Plains, Fellwar Stone
Untapped: Grand Architect, Swamp

• Combo deck. Wins by making infinite colored mana, and then looping Breya to drain all opponent's life.
• Grand Architect combos with Pili-Pala to make infinite mana. Pili-Pala is not on the battlefield... yet.
• 5 cards in hand.

Do you play Nekusar this turn, do you keep mana open for Chaos Warp, or do you use Windfall to get a better hand?

• If you chose to cast Chaos Warp, what is your current target (it may change as people play stuff), and when would you cast it?

[Aetherium Slinky]

I cast Nekusar.

Reasoning:
Considering just me: During my next turn I will be able to cast Windfall and Chaos Warp. Windfall with Nekusar is an extra 4-6 damage per player assuming I remove Spirit of the Labyrinth.

Mayael isn't a real threat. Fat angel on the table, lots of mana but their strategy is probably to get a lot of fatties out. They're probably going at the Breya player if I keep my mouth shut. They've also missed a land drop so that pushes them down on the threat list.

Alesha's Spirit of the Labyrinth is a problem but right now it actually protects me because my opponents don't get the extra card draw. Then again I have no idea what other kind of creatures there are so I'd prefer to wait.

Breya player is an obvious problem. Let's say there are a generous six tutors that find Pili-Pala plus Pili-Pala the card so a 7/89=8% chance to draw something that leads into Pili-Pala. 8% is a risk I'm willing to take. If I remove Spirit of the Labyrinth this chance goes up to 15% because of the extra card draw. I'm assuming that Breya doesn't have tutor in their hand already, which, of course is not the correct assumption.

Mayael is probably busy finding mana or fatties and won't really care if Nekusar is out. If anything they'll probably hope to get extra draw and hit a land. Alesha same thing, doesn't really make their play more difficult. Breya has probably a vested interest in keeping Nekusar alive. More draw, more Pili-Pala. Nekusar's win condition seems to be life loss so they probably count Nekusar as extra draw because they're all at 40 life. All in all there's no reason I'd lose my 5-mana investment during this round.

Finally let's see how likely it is that someone else removes Grand Architect. Mayael might carry creature removal. All Naya colours can do this, meaning Grand Architect is likely to be removed by Mayael since they also see the threat. Alesha also has access to good creature removal and can have a hate bear for this situation, something like Phyrexian Revoker comes to mind. Never played Alesha so difficult to gauge but I'm sure there are other options, too. All in all there's a really good chance that either Mayael or Alesha will remove Grand Architect before it gets back to me.

Nobody is interested in removing Spirit of the Labyrinth (maybe Breya?) so that's probably something I'll have to do myself with Chaos Warp.

Recap: cast Nekusar, wait, reassess situation next turn. Nobody is going to win this round, Grand Architect might get removed. I'm basically back in the same situation but I've got Nekusar out and I know more about the board state.

_EDIT:
Chaos Orb => Chaos Warp (derp)

[WWolfe]

I prefer removal over counters. Don't get me wrong, I pack a few counters but they're to protect my combo/win-cons. If the rest of the table doesn't react to stuff that hurts them, then that's their problem. Sounds harsh, but if their deckbuilding doesn't include answers then that's on them.

[Soren841]

There are definitely more than 6 tutors that find Pili-Pala tho