Threat Assessment in Commander

[Firegriff]

I would cast Nekusar.  He isn't going to be considered a threat with Spirit of the Labyrinth out, so opponents will likely let him slide.  Next turn, plan on Locust God coming out if nothing scarier comes around in the meantime.  Then Chaos Warp the Spirit of the Labyrinth and windfall into some defensive bugs.  Megrim and draw damage is icing on the cake.

[Judaspriester]

Hmm.. thats not that easy. An obvious coice would be playing Windfall even with the Spirit out, because I would only lose 3 cards, but the other players would lose 5/6 cards and also lose 10/12 dmg that way. Alesha wouldn't care that much, because he gets at least his creatures back out of his graveyard. Mayael would get hurt kinda hard, because she already missed a land drop, and with her hand lost, there is a good chance, that she will drop some interesting cards. For breya its a good question. she would get hurt, but on the other hand, with blue and black, she should have access to enough stuff to get her important cards back.

Second option: Chaos Warp. I don't really like this card, because I've already seen it making things much worse than before. the obvious coices here would be the spirit or grand architect. the spirit counters my deck strategy, but on the other hand, he also keeps breya at bay, because her ability to draw into her combo is also limited. Besides that, I can be sure, that he will come back next turn, because Alesha attacks me to revive him, since i got no blocker. The Grand Architect, well.. it's an important combo piece, but if I'll nuke it now, she will probably bring him back soon. besides that, he isn't a that big deal alone, at least at the current board state.

third option: play nekuzar. Since card draw is limited by the spirit, the other players probably doesn't care much about him on the battlefield, since he is already crippled. with the city of brass in hand, this would allow me to play chaos warp and windfall in the same turn, without relaying on my draw luck. if the amount of hand cards keep the same, it would net in 17/19 next turn. this may sound great, but also gives breya a good chance to draw removal or a tutor. Then I could exile the Hellkite 2 turns later and sitll haven't dealt enough damage to finish of..

fourth option: do nothing and wait. this would allow me to play chaos warp to interrupt something bad, but on the other hand, if I decide then not to play it (maybe one of the others solves my problems), I would have wasted a turn.

Hmm.. f*ck off, lets play the long game. I'll play Windfall.

[Aetherium Slinky]

Interesting! I didn't actually look at the value of nuking hands. The sad things is Windfall is a sorcery so I will have always drawn a card that turn, putting me into topdeck mode with no other ways to draw and my opponents still get to keep one card. For Breya that card could be a tutor and I would have literally zero answers. I'm sorry but I don't really like the outcome. I can't control my draws or anyone's draws at that point. Alesha will be able to reanimate the discarded things and Breya will be able to cast Breya, get two blue thopters that tap for CCCC and have two cards on their turn. Thran Dynamo? Solemn Simulacrum? Krark-Clan Ironworks? I don't even know what the deck runs but there are tons of CMC<5 colorless things they could cast.

I still think this is the best point to cast Nekusar. It's not an obvious threat, won't limit my options in the future (Chaos Warp) and in general it's efficient use of mana.

[Morganator 2.0]

Let's break down each option.

1. Windfall
So, I lied. You can't use Windfall to get a better hand. Because of the Spirit of the Labyrinth, everyone would discard their hands (10 damage to Mayael and Breya, 12 to Alesha) and then your opponents get 1 card, and you get none. You already drew a card this turn. Going into top-deck mode is a bad idea.

2. Chaos Warp the...
Baneslayer Angel
This creature is not threatening. It may be the most powerful creature on the board, but that hardly matters. It isn't killing anyone any time soon. And although it doesn't matter much, Mayael is the most likely player to flip another powerful creature off of the top (more on this latter).
Shaman of Forgotten Ways
This card can end games, but not any time soon. Mayael missed a land drop, and the ability requires 11 mana. Don't worry about it.
Spirit of the Labyrinth
Yeah, this thing has to go. It pretty much disables Nekusar's strategy. But it doesn't necessarily have to go right away. You'll have 6 mana next turn, so you'll be able to use the Chaos Warp, and then Windfall.
Grand Architect/Pili-Pala
While this combo is worrisome, you don't need to worry just yet. Pili-Pala will enter with summoning sickness, and so can't use it's untap effect right away, so unless someone foolishly plays a haste enabler like Concordant Crossroads or Mass Hysteria, you have two turns to deal with this combo.
3. Nekusar
This is the option that I would go for. Now is a good time to build up your board. It is highly unlikely that anyone will combo next turn. And on your next turn, you'll have 6 mana to get rid of the Spirit of the Labyrinth, and then cast Windfall. The following turn would be another wheel effect (Runehorn Hellkite if nothing else) leading to massive life-loss for your opponents (2 for every card discarded, 1 for every card drawn). However, if Breya does play the Pili-Pala, then the removal should (sadly) go that way.

Congratulations to Firegriff and Mustakotka.

A note on Chaos Warp
One of the biggest concerns I've seen from Chaos Warp is the fear that it will flip into something really threatening. It can happen, but it's unlinkely. First off, a good chunk of most decks are lands, instants/sorceries, and mana ramp (let's assume about 60 to 70 cards). None of these are super threatening, so the majority of the time the card off the top is irrelevant.

The other factor is that you should be using Chaos Warp on the real threats. It can hit any target so it's super versatile, and because it shuffles in the removed card is harder to recur. And just look at this last example. The two targets were Spirit of the Labyrinth (a card that shuts down the game for you) and the Pili-Pala combo (a game-winning combo). So long as you use Chaos Warp in situations like this, it will serve you well.

[WWolfe]

A good example of bad threat assessment is a game I played in last night.

Opponent casts Grasp of Fate, targets my Viscera Seer (taking away a sac outlet but not the right choice), another opponents Propaganda (not a bad choice as the casting player was playing a token deck), and the final players Rest in Peace- a horrible option and here's why...

I was playing Sidisi with a win-con on the board (Gravecrawler + Phyrexian Altar + Plague Belcher) and the RIP was keeping me from performing the combo. Phyrexian Altar would have been the better choice for him to hit on me as it would have broken the combo that was on the board. Any of the 7 other choices he had for the RIP player would have been better.

Three targets, only one good choice was made.

[Morganator 2.0]

Oh yes, I've had this happen before too, and I briefly referenced this example earlier.

I was playing Captain Sisay which wins by continuously re-casting Hope of Ghirapur, and drains everyone through Bontu's Monument.

Someone else had played a Damping Sphere the turn before I was going to win. The next player says "I don't like that" and uses Reclamation Sage to destroy the sphere.

I won, and the Damping Sphere would have stopped me.

Remember what I said earlier?

This might sound obvious, but you should always be wary for the person who is going to combo first.

It's important. And also:

Dealing with stax
Most important thing with stax effects; if it's stopping someone else from winning, leave it alone. As annoying as Damping Sphere can be, if it's stopping a combo deck from winning, leave it be.

[WWolfe]

Yep, you're spot on Morganator. I won on my next turn by spamming the combo. The other two players are sitting there just staring down the guy who cast the Grasp of Fate.

Another tip I would give is if you're not sure, ask. I've helped people multiple times figure out what threat they should remove even if it involved me losing a piece. I had an opponent today cast a Decimate and wasn't sure what artifact and land to hit. It was turn 5 and I told him he was crazy if he didn't blow up my Sol Ring and Ancient Tomb as I had access to 10 mana while no one else had more than 7 as it would even things up and slow me down.

[Red_Wyrm]

Oh yes, I've had this happen before too, and I briefly referenced this example earlier.

I was playing Captain Sisay which wins by continuously re-casting Hope of Ghirapur, and drains everyone through Bontu's Monument.

Someone else had played a Damping Sphere the turn before I was going to win. The next player says "I don't like that" and uses Reclamation Sage to destroy the sphere.

I won, and the Damping Sphere would have stopped me.

Remember what I said earlier?

This might sound obvious, but you should always be wary for the person who is going to combo first.

It's important. And also:

Dealing with stax
Most important thing with stax effects; if it's stopping someone else from winning, leave it alone. As annoying as Damping Sphere can be, if it's stopping a combo deck from winning, leave it be.

Let's say it's the first time I'm seeing your captain sisay deck and I am unsure of how it works. In this situation I don't know that the dampening sphere is stopping you from winning, so how do you know if a stax effect is stopping someone from winning?

[Aetherium Slinky]

Let's say it's the first time I'm seeing your captain sisay deck and I am unsure of how it works. In this situation I don't know that the dampening sphere is stopping you from winning, so how do you know if a stax effect is stopping someone from winning?

I feel like this is the best argument for waiting and seeing what happens.

[Soren841]

If the stax isn't stopping YOU from winning RIGHT NOW then leave it.

[WWolfe]

If the stax isn't stopping YOU from winning RIGHT NOW then leave it.

This times 100!

[Morganator 2.0]

You should only remove a stax piece if it is either hurting you more than other players, or if it is directly stopping you from winning. As with combo pieces, wait for the last possible moment to remove a stax piece.

If you are also playing a deck that wins by casting a lot of spells in one turn, then yes, remove the Damping Sphere. But even then, time your removal so that you will be the first to take advantage of it being gone. If you are a deck that wins through combat or incremental damage, then leave it alone.

[Soren841]

Morg updoot and comment on Sliver Hulk

[Red_Wyrm]

If the stax isn't stopping YOU from winning RIGHT NOW then leave it.

Gotcha. That's easy to remember.


I've never played a stax deck and never seen one played, so forgive me if this is noobish. If you play a stax card and it ends up preventing you from winning, or hurting you the most, do you remove your own piece? I would think you either rework the deck or quit magic.

[Morganator 2.0]

If you play a stax card and it ends up preventing you from winning, or hurting you the most, do you remove your own piece? I would think you either rework the deck or quit magic.

Rework the deck is the best option. If you're making a stax deck, you want to have some way to work around or mitigate your own stax effects.

For example, my first stax deck was Ruric Thar, the Unbowed. I used lots of creatures for mana ramp, which meant I was less affected by cards like Winter Orb, Magus of the Moon, Trinisphere, and Null Rod. Because I was using stax effects that weren't hurting me, I never had a reason to remove them.

My current stax deck is Captain Sisay. In it, I have Gaddock Teeg, who shuts down my own combo (I can't play Paradox Engine). But I do need Gaddock to deal with certain decks. My solution to this problem is by using Miren, the Moaning Well to sacrifice Gaddock right before I am going to combo.

That's the main thing with building a stax deck; you need to include stax effects that will hurt your opponent's more than you, and you need to have some way to work around them if they do hurt you.