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Commander Meta Analysis Guide

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Morganator 2.0:
Every commander playgroup is different. Some groups have stax decks, some groups have decks that slowly play bigger and bigger threats, and some groups have 3 people all playing Superfriends. Whatever the case is for your playgroup, it's important to adjust your deck to whatever decks you will go up against. This is commonly called a meta analysis.

There are two steps to a meta analysis.

Step 1: list off the decks in your meta

Make a list of all the decks in your meta that you will face off against. Also include their win-condition(s) and anything else special about it. For example, this is what my meta looked like a little while back:

* Azami, Lady of Scrolls: Draws lots of cards, and uses counterspells. Wins with Laboratory Maniac.
* Kess, Dissident Mage: Storm deck (casts a lot of spells in one turn). Wins with Aetherflux Reservoir.
* Marwyn, the Nurturer: Elfball deck (lots of mana). Wins by repeatedly casting Eternal Witness, Beast Within, and Somberwald Stag (destroy all permanents)
* Yidris, Maelstrom Wielder: Storm deck. Wins with Aetherflux Reservoir.
* Godo, Bandit Warlord: Fast combo, races to get 11 mana quickly. Wins with Helm of the Host (infinite combat steps).This is only a sample of some of the decks that I faced off against. I excluded some of the decks in the meta, such as Sisters of Stone Death and Brimaz, King of Oreskos. While they are part of the playgroup, I never struggled against them, so I don't need to slot in special cards to deal with these decks.
Once you have a list of the decks and their strategies, you can go to step 2.

Step 2: add hate cards to your deck(s)

This is where you add in cards that exploit the weaknesses of your opponents' decks. Hit them where it hurts, but make sure that the card won't be useless if you're not going up against that specific deck. For example, Tivadar's Crusade is really good against goblin decks... but it's only good against goblin decks. Instead you should be thinking broad. What are some cards that you can use that affect more than one deck in your meta? For example, in the meta that I showed in step 1, a lot of the decks rely on casting multiple spells in one turn, and the activated abilities of creatures. So I should use cards like Rule of Law, Cursed Totem, Sphere of Resistance, and Phyrexian Revoker.

But your playgroup likely doesn't look like this. Your hate pieces will be different from mine. So here is a handy guide to help pick out the ones you need. I've tried to keep it general, and all the options you'll see are good picks. Be careful though; some of these effects might hurt you as well. You'll need to judge if it's a hit that you're willing to take.

Problem: Solution

Strong artifact mana base: Karn, the Great Creator, Null Rod, Stony Silence, Collector Ouphe, Root Maze, Blind Obedience.

Creatures with activated abilities: Cursed Totem, Linvala, Keeper of Silence, Suppression Field, Humility, Pithing Needle, Phyrexian Revoker.

Search effects (tutors): Aven Mindcensor, Mindlock Orb, Stranglehold, Ob Nixilis, Unshackled.

Counterspells: City of Solitude, Dosan the Falling Leaf, Vexing Shusher, Grand Abolisher, Defense Grid, War's Toll.

Enter the battlefield effects: Torpor Orb, Hushwing Gryff, Tocatli Honor Guard.

Opponent draws lots of cards: Notion Thief, Spirit of the Labyrinth, Consecrated Sphinx.

Artifact decks: Aura of Silence, Blind Obedience, Kataki, War's Wage, Karn, the Great Creator, Null Rod, Stony Silence, Collector Ouphe, Seeds of Innocence.

Graveyard decks: Rest in Peace, Leyline of the Void, Ground Seal, Tormod's Crypt, Relic of Progenitus, Nihil Spellbomb, Rakdos Charm, Sentinel Totem, Containment Priest.

Aggro decks: Lightmine Field, Peacekeeper, Crawlspace, Propaganda, Ghostly Prison, Sphere of Safety.

Storm decks: Rule of Law, Eidolon of Rhetoric, Sphere of Resistance, Trinisphere, Thorn of Amethyst, Glowrider, Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Ethersworn Canonist.

Stax decks: Use a good removal package. Focus on artifact and enchantment removal for stax decks. Also hurt their source of card advantage.


Special note on lands
It's incredible how much money people (myself included) are willing to spend on lands. If you're using mostly basics while everyone else is using fetch-lands and shock-lands, this is something you can exploit. Something like Back to Basics, Magus of the Moon, Thalia, Heretic Cathar, or Ruination will cause trouble for those money-bags, but leave you untouched. If fetch-lands are very common in your meta, you can take this a step further. Root Maze tremendously slows down the effectiveness of fetch-lands, and something like Blood Sun or Aven Mindcensor super kills them.

Meta analysis without a meta
Sometimes you don't have a steady playgroup, or you're checking out a new game shop on commander night. The meta is unknown, so now you have to be very general. In this case, you don't need specific hate pieces... yet. Instead, try to patch up the weaknesses of your deck. If you know you have trouble against aggressive decks, use pillowfort effects. If your commander is a target for removal, include protection spells. Also, always include some good removal and grave-hate. It is surprising how often grave-hate is useful.

If there was something I missed, or if you still have questions, leave a comment here.

Judaspriester:
Good Work.

I've just got 2 Additions for the hate pices:
Narset, Parter of Veils works great against draw
Ashiok, Dream Render works great against tutors and also works as graveyard hate (even if only on sorcery speed), as additional pro for him: both effect are asymetric.

Aetherium Slinky:
Counterspells: Teferi, Time Raveler
Aggro: Maze of Ith, Overburden, Dissipation Field, Pendrell Mists


On unknown meta:

I like to include cards that have situational use outside of their 'obvious' uses. Stave Off is a good example: it can give my creature protection from a colour but it doubles as a removal spell if my opponent is playing auras. It can stop a combo if one of the combo pieces is colored and uses an activated ability on a creature. Stuff like Long Road Home can remove a problematic token (Marit Lage) from the table. Spirit Link is a little bit wider than Spirit Loop since it can neutralize an opponent's large attacker that's otherwise difficult to remove.

Just to touch on Morganator's specific meta; Aethreflux Reservoir is neutralised safely by Krosan Grip since they don't get to activate it before it's gone. Same goes for all the split second spells - they're good at stopping things that happen instant speed. Yes, there's a mana penalty but unless you're going against cEDH it might be worth it to run split second until you know what exactly you need to remove and if they're able to get it back at some point.

Judaspriester:
Be careful with Dissipation Field. It may work against aggro, but it may also allow your opponent a "free" bounce source that can be abused in the right setup. I've already killed myself by playing that card against an ally deck.

Aetherium Slinky:

--- Quote from: Judaspriester on July 17, 2019, 11:17:32 am ---Be careful with Dissipation Field. It may work against aggro, but it may also allow your opponent a "free" bounce source that can be abused in the right setup. I've already killed myself by playing that card against an ally deck.

--- End quote ---
Yeah I've always felt it's the weakest of these. I haven't actually encountered that scenario, very good that you pointed it out! Learn something new every day.

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