Using Probabilities while building decks, but what about playing?

[DelverMage]

Sorry if this post comes off as a bit scattered.... that is because it is.  I posted it anyways, hoping to spark some discussion.

The metrics and details that the deck builder in DeckStats.net is a huge benefit that is offered here over other websites.

The math and details behind this tool can be a huge asset to tuning and optimizing your decks.

I find that I only really use those features on decks that I am tuning for competition, but some of what the probability section offers can easily help you while planning and designing a deck as well.

There are certain standards and numbers that folks use while building decks.  40% land is a good example of that.  The next land thought is making sure your colored mana mix supports the mana requirements of your chosen spells.  The details tab has some nice Pie charts to help show that ratio.

One of the less obvious uses of the probability measures is the ability to determine probability of a TYPE of spell showing up, not just the cards or land/mana colors.

A control deck designed to use Blue and Black functionality to control the early to mid game of your opponent would normally contain counter spells and removal.  How many counters do I need to play to normally see 2 of them by turn 4 or 5??  Nine of them will give you a more than 50% chance to have that happen.  How much removal to see 3 in the same amount of time??  You would have to have Fifteen of them for that. 

This is a fairly simple example of how to use that chart to help design a deck. 


It is one thing to take advantage of these numbers while building, but what about playing??
The ability to remember the numbers is a skill that many pros and strong competitors can do.
It is not usually allowed to have your Deckstats app up on your tablet to access your info while playing, but you can have some notes.....

I have built a grid that I can print off, that displays some of the generic numbers that the probability charts give on the deck page.  I have the columns listed 1 through 12 on the Y axis, and Hand and the first 5 turns on the rows X axis.  The grid gives me the percentages of seeing  the card based on how many in your deck... up to 12 for the first 5 turns, and I can reference it on the fly.  This info can now help inform some decisions, like whether or not I should counter this creature now..... or remove it later.  Am I due for another counter spell soon??

I have also set this up for Brawl and EDH.... obviously not useful for specific cards, but it works great for land and Types of cards.... and still provides good information to help decide which direction your plan should go.

[Morganator 2.0]

Do you know what my favorite thing about Deckstats is? The stats.

Because I don't have time to do hypergeometric probability in the middle of a game, I handle the stats part before the game, and do estimates during the game. Like I guess how likely I am to draw an answer to a threat, or I look at boardstates and guess how likely my play is to get countered.

A lot of times these probabilities are less than 50% (in commander at least) so I don't like taking risks if I can avoid it. In most cases, I'd rather go for a play that I will know the result of, instead of one that is a gamble. Exception: Gamble.

[DelverMage]

That is exactly what I am working on and what prompted me starting this thread....

Considering the relative chances of what you still have available in your deck, while making play decisions. 

I hear this discussed or see it mentioned lots of times in discussions about competitive play.
I have never really focused on what it takes to try to keep that idea in focus while playing, and how to simplify that process to make it easier to accomplish.

Knowing that on turn 5, with 10 removal cards still in my library, that I have a real good chance of drawing one in the next turn or two...

[Morganator 2.0]

Actually... There might be a fast way to calculate these things.

First, you'll need to group the cards in your deck by function, based on what you'll want. This could be stuff like removal, counterspells, or just "stompy creatures". It will vary based on deck and format. Get numbers for your deck. Example:

Lands: 20
Removal: 12
Small creatures: 16
Large creatures: 8
Triumph of the Hordes: 4

I made this up, but you get the idea. This will allow you to do calculations based on what cards you've already seen or played. So if you just need to top-deck a land on your next turn, you do (20-number of lands not in deck)/(60-number of cards not in deck).

I used a 60-card format for this example, but the principal is the same for commander. If you need a specific card, Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker for example, you include that card and any cards you could use to get that card (Worldly Tutor, Eldritch Evolution, etc.)

Does this help?

[Soren841]

I think you're just overthinking. Play your deck a lot and get to know your deck and you'll get a sense for what you can and can't get away with

[DelverMage]

Morganator 2.0,  it does help and is kind of where I am going with this exercise.

Soren841, what you are talking about is what I have pretty much always done.

What I am trying to do, is to be more mindful of the probabilities while playing the game. 
Ultimately, this needs to become second nature, but using charts both as a reference, and a reminder to think about, is a good starting point to begin to incorporate this into game play.

It is a skill that some folks just have, and I have a bit of it, but I want to be even more effective because I want have reasonable numbers in my head more than just an idea.

Mindfully applying math is what I am trying to foster here.  Not a novel idea, more like a key skill that should be exercised.