Where is the data set? The last time they did this they posted a data set.
Where is it?Great... now I have to actually watch the video.
Sample size: 109 games total, some games were excluded. For a lot of these a sample size of "around 50" was used, but no explanation for this number was given. Or maybe it was. I'm not that good at holding my attention.
Game lengthThe first test was to see what the average turn that games end on is. 109 games were used for this part. They found that on average, games end on turn 10.29. First, I want to see if this average is correct, and then I want to find out what the standard deviation is, so I can get an idea of what the range for a typical game length is. The problem with this, is that they gave the measure of games here based on percentages of the total. So they would say something like "Games ended on turn 9 21% of the time". Fortunately, I can back-track with this to get the actual numbers. Here's what the counts are, assuming that the Command Zone did proper rounding (safe assumption).
Turn 6: 4 games
Turn 7: 5 games
Turn 8: 15 games
Turn 9: 23 games
Turn 10: 12 games
Turn 11: 15 games
Turn 12: 11 games
Turns 13 to 17: 22 games
Turn 18: 1 game
Turn 19: 1 game
There is a gap between turns 13 and 17, which proved to be difficult to figure out. What I can conclude, is that there was a mistake made somewhere. Because even when I make the estimate of the results like this, the average ends up being 10.33.
Turn 6: 4 games
Turn 7: 5 games
Turn 8: 15 games
Turn 9: 23 games
Turn 10: 12 games
Turn 11: 15 games
Turn 12: 11 games
Turn 13: 22 games
Turn 14: 0 games
Turn 15: 0 games
Turn 16: 0 games
Turn 17: 0 gamesTurn 18: 1 game
Turn 19: 1 game
It's not a big mistake, but it does mean that something went wrong somewhere. Without me being able to see the data set I don't know where the mistake lies. So I have to guess based on normal distribution. Here's what I think it actually looks like.
Turn 6: 4 games
Turn 7: 5 games
Turn 8: 15 games
Turn 9: 23 games
Turn 10: 12 games
Turn 11: 15 games
Turn 12: 11 games
Turn 13: 8 games
Turn 14: 6 games
Turn 15: 3 games
Turn 16: 3 games
Turn 17: 2 gamesTurn 18: 1 game
Turn 19: 1 game
Okay, so with this rough estimate now. It gives an average of 10.6, with a standard deviation of 2.73. I should probably explain what that means. Standard deviation is a measure of error. As a general rule, 68% of the data is within the first standard deviation, and 95% of the data is within 1.96 standard deviations. So for this data, that means that 68% of games will end between turns 8 (10.6-2.73=7.87, rounded to 8
) and 13 (10.6+2.73= 13.33 rounded to 13). This means you can expect most games to end between turns 8 and 13. Which is actually pretty close to what The Command Zone got. 70% of their games end between turns 8 and 12. The statement they made is correct.
Now what does this mean for you as a player? For starters, I think people are surprised by this number. One of the hosts was surprised to see that 14% of games end on turn 8 (dude on the right). I've been recording game length for my games this year, and even my casual games tend to end around turn 8, something that surprises my playgroup. Most people stop remembering which turn it is around turn 5 or 6, so I'm sure that the games do feel longer than 8 turns. Once everyone has played their mana ramp and commander, turns tend to take longer. The same could be true in your playgroup. If it is, it means that you need to be prepared to try and make game winning plays by turn 7, or at the very least a play that puts you at a really big advantage.
Quick aside: cEDH games don't end by turn 0 or 1. Dude on the right made that terribly incorrect assumption at one point.
CMC 7+ spellsSample size here is a little under 50 games. No explanation for why.
Right, so I can't extrapolate on the results any more than what the video already stated. 2.38 CMC 7+ spells per game (all players), 0.6 per player, and 19% of games had no spells of CMC 7+ cast.
Is this a surprise to people? I typically only have 2 or so cards that I'm willing to cast for 7 mana or more. It's just easier to cheat out a high cost. So of course it's not going to happen very often.
Commander FrequencyAgain, without a data set, I can't check to see if the numbers here are true, but I think it's safe to assume that they are. The Command Zone also has vested interest in these results, so there is no motivation to fudge them.
Players on average cast their commander 1.4 times. The data was also partitioned based on CMC of the commander. Commanders that cost 2 mana are cast (on average) 1.86 times per game. Commanders that cost 3 or 4 mana are cast 1.47 times per game. CMC 5 or 6 is 1.3 times, and 7+ is 0.77 times. I'm a little annoyed with the way the discussion went however. It seemed like the hosts assumed that once a commander gets removed, players are less inclined to re-cast it. I think that it's because a lot of commanders aren't worth removing. Sorry, but
Rhys the Redeemed is just not worth removing. For high-cost commanders, the game could very well end before they get cast. 33% of games the CMC 7+ commander wasn't cast. Again, keep in mind that this population is for YouTubers, it might not apply to your group.
Combat & AttacksAverage number of used combat phases: 2.86
Makes sense. Combat isn't really used that much in commander. Hell, when you get into competitive commander, most decks completely skip over the combat step. Next they checked how often the player with the most combat phases used in a game. Average: 5.25.
I really with I could give standard deviations to these values. This tells me nothing except "Aggressive decks attack more". So... yay?
Board wipesOn average, 1.32 board wipes get cast per game. 0 board wipes cast in 23% of games. Seems about right to me. Nothing much to say here I don't think.
OverallAt the end of the video they mentioned that the data set will be released when they do another big stats episode. I don't have as much to complain about this time. Just that this data needs an error value. It's important. If you say that on average 1.32 boardwipes are cast, give or take 1.5 times... you can't really conclude anything.
I don't watch this content very often, so I guess I need to turn the question to everyone else; do your playgroups often resemble what you see on Commander Knights or MTG Muddstah? From what I understand they play very little combo, and mostly battle-cruiser type decks. Are your playgroups like this?