Is springleaf drum really useful in affinity?

[XibalbaBis]

I computed the chance of the springleaf drum,

To use Springleaf drum at 1st turn you need a mana to cast the drum (and a 0 cost creature), then use the drum to cast something else (not thoughtcast, because we have only 3 artifacts at this point).

so the combination of cards is (even assuming keeping 12 creatures with cmc 0 is wise)

12 x (0 cmc creatures) at least 1 in hand
4 x (spring leaf drum) at least 1 in hand
18 x (lands) at least 1 in hand
12 x (spell with cmc =1) at least 1 in hand.

in a 60 cards deck, the chance for that  In your First 8 cards Is 25.4%.
Final conclusion? on turn 1 much better just something with cost 1 that you use for something else, or 1 Mox Opal.
Now, advantages of springleaf drum as a 2nd/3rd turn extra mana? (meaning potentially you can cast a cost 3 creature thanks to it at 2nd turn, but that still relies on having 1 creature with cmc 0, requiring polluting the deck with useless creatures, otherwise you should spend mana to cast another creature)

Another alternative for using Springleaf Drum, is to have 4 moxes (regardless you can play only 1), and many cost 1 stuff, meaning on first and second turn you play 4/5 creatures, but then you have a empty hand. But I have yet to verify the chance for this kind of combo (though maybe this one is good, it could allow Cranial Plating attack on 2 turn, but is that more worth than having other kind of cards?)

Having some doubt also on moxopal... this need deep reflections. I think automatically adding it to decks just make the price goes up, without really thinking if it fits or if it is usefull..

[XibalbaBis]

Then what about second turn card?

For a second turn play, springleaf drum and paradise mantle are perfectly equivalent,


Assuming the same Number of lands (18 ), paramantle(4), 0creatures( 8 ), the factor changing Is Number of cards of cost3.
The chance for the combination
1x ocreature
1x paramantle
2x land
1x anything with cost 3
 is
4 cards = chance is 7.6%
8 cards = chance is 13.0%
12 cards = chance is 16.6%

Still too low. Ok I admit It Is a usefull replacement as the last called card for Urza's saga (so in case the saga doesn't finish the game, you can still get 1 mana).

In my opinion, there shouldn't be more than 1 (possibly 0) springleaf drum or paradise mantle in affinity decks.

And yes I know it's tempting to Say "yes but from time to time, i can equip Cranial Plating on second turn thanks to that". Don't do It. Mox Opal is Better. It don't requires a creature. Ita basically free mana you can Always play in affinity deck ( to be honest, in a deck with 53 artifacts cards, the chance to not activate mox Opal at First turn are very low, and negligible at second turn)

Note:

Why I don't count the Drum as utility card?
I'm reasoning in a combo way.
If you put 4 of them, you basically get it 1 in every 1 out of 3 games.

But to be usefull at the second turn you also need a specific set of cards, so while it is by itself a card and can provide  some other utility it's best spent in the combination.

To count a card as utility the prerequisites are

1)The other cards in the combination are likely to be drawn
2) the other cards are usefull by theirselves
3) the utility Is usefull by itself.

Paradise Mantle and Springleaf drum have not these points.

What about the combined chance?
So how unlucky you should be to not draw the combination usefull for the First turn, and the combination usefull for the second turn?
0.746*0.834 = 62.2% chance to not draw both

So you either get First or second turn Just in 37.8% of games.. too low.

[XibalbaBis]

Final conclusion

Springleaf drum should be present only in maximum quantity of 1, and only if Urza's Saga is used. This gives the chance to get a mana when that enchanted land finally have to sacrifice itself.

EDIT: It's really a pity objective analysis of cards gets downvotes . I though that instead of regular social media where things you don't like gets downvoted, here quality content would get upvoted.
Also it's pretty awkard, I'm getting a lot of positive and negative downvotes, seems like upvotes gets automatically deleted..

[Aetherium Slinky]

Yeah the downvotes on this thread are a little awkward.