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Kaladesh
Aether Revolt
Amonkhet
Hour of Devastation
Ixalan
7 - 8 burn spells (4 Harnessed Lightning, Magma Spray, Abrade, Lightning Strike (Negate, Essence Scatter))
9 top-end (Bristling Hydra, Glorybringer, Confiscation Coup, Commit // Memory (Vizier of Many Faces))
23 creatures (16 = 4 Longtusk Cub, 4 Servant of the Conduit, 4 Rogue Refiner, 4 Whirler Virtuoso / 6 = 3 Bristling Hydra, 3 Glorybringer)
~3 planeswalkers (2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance (Nissa, Steward of Elements, Nissa, Vital Force)
22 lands
https://www.channelfireball.com/all-strategy/articles/standard-temur-energy-deck-guide/
https://article.hareruyamtg.com/article/article_en_219/?lang=en
(https://strategy.channelfireball.com/all-strategy/mtg/channelmagic-articles/how-many-colored-mana-sources-do-you-need-to-consistently-cast-your-spells-a-guilds-of-ravnica-update/)
(https://i2.wp.com/www.channelfireball.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/How-many-sources-60-cards.png)
Goal: Cast any card with cmc N on curve with a probability of 89% + 1% * N.
Color [Turn 1 Symbols] ([Turn 2 Symbols] / [Turn 3 Symbols])
Requirements | Green 16 (20 / 22) | Blue 12 (16 / 18) | Red 13 (17 / 19) |
---|---|---|---|
X = 14 | ✓ | x | x |
1X = 13 | ✓ | x (✓) | ✓ |
2X = 11 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
3X = 10 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
- | - | - | - |
2XX = 16 | ✓ | x (✓) | x (✓) |
3XX = 14 | ✓ | x (✓) | x (✓) |
4XX = 13 | ✓ | x (✓) | ✓ |
- | - | - | - |
Requirements | Green & Blue | Green & Red | Blue & Red |
1XY = 12 X, 12 Y, 19 X or Y | ✓ | ✓ | x (✓) |
22 Lands
4 green only land sources
1 blue only land sources
2 red only land sources
0 colorless land sources
4 any color source
4 green + blue land sources
4 green + red land sources
3 blue + red land sources
= 16 green sources (+ 4 on turn 2 | + 2 on turn 3)
= 12 blue sources (+ 4 on turn 2 | + 2 on turn 3)
= 13 red sources (+ 4 on turn 2 | + 2 on turn 3)
= 20 green or blue sources (+ 4 on turn 2 | + 2 on turn 3)
= 21 green or red sources (+ 4 on turn 2 | + 2 on turn 3)
= 18 blue or red sources (+ 4 on turn 2 | + 2 on turn 3)
+ 4 Attune with Aether. They can be counted as + 1,0 * 4 mana sources of either color for cards with cmc 2 or higher. Though they act like a tap land.
+ 4 Servant of the Conduit (which are irrelevant on turns 1 & 2). They can be counted as + 0,5 * 4 mana sources of either color for cards with cmc 3 or higher. Though they act like a tap land.
We rely on Attune with Aether to sculpt our mana sources from turn 2 onward, though it basically acts like a tap land and can only fetch up to 1 blue and 2 red sources.
Not being able to cast Glorybringer for 3RR on turn 4 or 5 could be a disaster: Relying sorely on lands, there is a probability of 92,4% to cast it on turn 5. Attune with Aether & Servant of the Conduit raise that value to 99,9%.
Casting a turn 2 Negate or Essence Scatter will be possible in 90,1% of cases if you account for lands only. Attune with Aether raises this value to 97,0%.
A potential black splash for The Scarab God (3UB) could work, kinda. Casting a 4B with just one swamp could be tricky.
2-sided (coin flip) | |
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6-sided (d6) | |
20-sided (d20) | |
Sides: |
Double-click to open card details.
Name | Hand | Turn 1 | Turn 2 | Turn 3 | Turn 4 | Turn 5 | Turn 6 | Turn 7 | Turn 8 | Turn 9 | Turn 10 | |
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Additional Probabilities |
Compare | Revision | Created | By | |||
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» | Revision 19 | July 1, 2022 | Unukalhai | |||
Revision 18 | June 25, 2022 | Unukalhai | ||||
Revision 17 | November 16, 2020 | Unukalhai | ||||
Revision 16 | November 14, 2020 | Unukalhai | ||||
Revision 15 | November 14, 2020 | Unukalhai | ||||
Revision 14 | November 11, 2020 | Unukalhai | ||||
Revision 13 | November 8, 2020 | Unukalhai | ||||
Revert to revision 11
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Revision 12 | November 8, 2020 | Unukalhai | ||||
Revision 11 | November 7, 2020 | Unukalhai | ||||
Revision 10 | November 7, 2020 | Unukalhai | ||||
Revision 9 | November 7, 2020 | Unukalhai | ||||
Revision 8 | November 3, 2020 | Unukalhai | ||||
Revision 7 | October 27, 2020 | Unukalhai | ||||
Revision 6 | October 12, 2020 | Unukalhai | ||||
Revision 5 | October 12, 2020 | Unukalhai | ||||
Revision 4 | October 12, 2020 | Unukalhai | ||||
Revision 3 | October 12, 2020 | Unukalhai | ||||
Revision 2 | October 12, 2020 | Unukalhai | ||||
Revision 1 | March 3, 2020 | Unukalhai |