Part B) As far as my decks go I'm not concerned with the 1 & 2 ofs in my decks because with the way that I build my decks I always get what I need. My consistency isn't in how many of a card that i have, its HOW many cards work WITH the cards that I'm playing. Let me give you an example: looking at my mardu deck I have two separate ways to beat down the opponent, really 3:
Option 1 - Use the ally triggers from my
Zulaport cutthroat and
Kalastria healer to drain my opponent of health and reduce them down to zero.
Option 2 - Use the enchantment
retreat to emeria and united front (with multiple colors) to create Kor ally tokens (which also trigger the other two allies that I mentioned) and to also sacrifice to the
butcher of the horde and steal the game in an air fight using him.
Option 3 - Make a Kor army and with the ally triggers from
kor Bladewhirl to give EVERYBODY first strike and go on the aggro against my opponent with an army of warriors.
The reason why I'm not so worried about how many copies I have is because I don't focus the deck to do one particular thing. I make the decks so that ALL the cards that go into it are so synergistic that I can run multiple strategies at once and weave my plays around what the opponent is doing and always have a play. Too much of one thing and cards that contribute to one strategy can keep your deck from being flexible enough to bend toward another play style when your original plan no longer works. let me say a quote that I hope you remember; "WHEN EVERYONE WORKS TOWARDS FEEDING EACH OTHER NO ONE GOES HUNGRY." I build my decks with that mindset, when every card I play helps multiple creatures and serves multiple purposes then I am never at a disadvantage.
That's also one reason why I don't like building the minimum on my deck builds all the time. Some of my decks are larger than 60 cards (at the pre-release the decks were 20 cards bigger than everyone else's.) even though their decks were effective in defeating mine, my decks ran effectively (except the abzan deck which even I admit could have done better with more supporting cards that I didn't have). But focusing on deck sizes and probabilities for a moment, even if you have a smaller deck with multiple copies of a card, having a bigger deck that has just as many multiples of cards doesn't change the percent ratio for draws and probable plays.
If I run 4 copies of
soulstinger in a 60 card deck then I have a 7% chance of drawing that card (4/60 = 0.066) If I run 4 copies of
soulstinger in a 70 card deck then I have a 6% chance of drawing it (4/70 = 0.057). But here's the thing people
forget: when you play cards that mill you out and draw from the deck and put lands from your deck onto the battlefield then you are THINNING your deck which increases the probability of drawing those cards even more.
An average game (me versus an opponent would look like this);
Opponent (60 cards) Me (70 cards)
Draw 7 = 53 Draw 7= 63
Turn 1= takes 1st, no draw, pass = 53 Turn 1= draw, pass= 62
Turn 2= draw 1, play land, pass = 52 Turn 2= draw, play land, pass = 61
Turn 3= draw 1, play a creature, pass = 51 Turn 3= draw, play
Spring // Mind, land hits field, pass = 59
Turn 4= draw 1, play a spell, attack, pass = 50 Turn 4= draw, play land (the 5th) on field, play a creature, pass = 58
Turn 5= draw 1, play a creature, pass= 49 Turn 5= draw, land on turn, aftermath
Spring // Mind, draw, pass= 55
If you look at these two decks 49 (still in the deck) divided by the starting (60 cards) means that: 49/60= 0.81.6 or 82% of this deck is still present to be used. For my deck 55/70 = 0.785 or 79% of my deck is still present to be utilized.
Even though the numbers can get confusing sometimes and we get worried about the chances, how you construct the deck mitigates the chances because by removing more of the deck in a more synergistic approach by executing plays actually helps the deck. I could play creatures such as
vizier of the anointed and he himself reduces the size of my deck by not only being drawn but taking another card from the deck and putting it straight in the grave. That's two cards in one turn. How I build the deck and the synergy the cards have with each other increases the draw probability of cards while also pushing the goal of the deck. The size of the deck does not matter to me because if I want it I build my deck so that I always get what I need. Make the deck work for you and you won’t have to leave it up to chance.
P.S. (the math is done to the best of my abilities 3am in the morning but should
serve as a decent example of the percentages).