This thread is an absolute mess. It seems like there are two conversations going on at once. I'll see if I can break this down.
But first, there is something we need to get out of the way. When choosing a starting hand, you don't get to see your next three draws. So to settle the argument on whether to keep a hand or not, the decision needs to be independent of what you would have drawn.
Now to break this down.
Scenario 1: Red_WyrmCommander:
ThraximundarHere's my logic for not keeping this hand. With no early turn plays (no mana ramp or card advantage) your opponents will have a huge advantage over you. Even if you can get to the 6 mana to start casting stuff, it's too little, too late. You are starting the game in top-deck mode. Not good.
By looking at your list for
Thraximundar (
http://deck.tk/7uno54W6) it seems like the goal is to make sure that your opponents don't have any creatures to attack with, and then you win with a big bomb... In that order. If you keep this hand, you're starting with the bomb, and then struggling to find a way to control your opponents' board state. Your first priority should be to set up your boardstate, so you can ready to begin control phase (AKA, start the game with mana ramp and draw engines).
Scenario 2: LoggiuCommander:
Grand Arbiter Augustin IVSo this hand I would actually keep. You may not have any mana ramp, but you have responses to your opponents (
Path to Exile,
Patron Wizard) and card advantage (
Jace Beleren). I couldn't find your list, but I'm assuming that the goal is to gradually stax your opponents until you can build a combo. This works then. You have enough to be able to stop your opponents in the early game, you can build into Augustin, and then you still have a draw source so you can continue to lay down the stax into the mid and late game.
Now to talk about my favorite thing Deckstats has to offer: the stats!
I would like to see the stats that The Command Zone has (I refuse to dig through YouTube videos looking for it). What was the value of the correlation coefficient (>0.70 is a fairly good correlation), what was their sample size, what were their error margins, and how did they measure which decks did better?
Lands alone are also a poor measurement. Mana sources would be better. I tend to have less lands then most other players (I don't use
Cultivate or
Kodama's Reach) by my win ratio is abnormally high. The really important factors are what the power level of the decks are, and how skilled of a player you are.