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Post - Aetherium Slinky

Pagine: [1] 2 3 ... 75
1
Commander Discussion / Re: Best Boardwipe in Commander
« il: Settembre 03, 2024, 02:55:41 pm »
Tragic Arrogance. Yeah, 5 mana is rough but oh boy does it hit so hard. Does your opponent have a treasure? Keep it. Do they have a mana dork? Keep it. Sacrifice absolutely everything else!

2
General Magic / Re: Magic the Gathering probability question
« il: Agosto 02, 2024, 01:52:33 pm »
Could you elaborate on your partial sums a little bit? How did you get the 4.65... ?

3
Off-Topic / Re: How Smart Are We?
« il: Maggio 09, 2024, 05:59:26 am »
I never ended  school but i'm the third of the  institute in mathematical  challenges. And in private i formulated some new mathemathical rules about number greater than infinite.

But infinity is an idea, not an actual number?

Infinity+1=Infinity. I thought there were just varying degrees of infinity, like 2^infinity vs 3^infinity. Both are infinity, but the latter is a larger infinity. Is this not correct?

Mathematic says the great number is Infinty elevated Infinity Infinite Times but that's not true, you can simply copy or divide it any time you want, there's not a bigger number you can find biggers any way.....
Infinity is not a number. Behaves often like one.

4
But then again you didn't answer my question which is ok. It'll be a yes or no because aren't you ahead in mana in either scenario? Now as the game progresses does it not occur to you that a player or the other players are also ramping? Or is ramping mad progressively only for sol-ring and not the other multitudes of cards that supplant ramp?
Both scenarios - Sol Ring and Farseek - had ramp but Sol Ring was 50% better by mid game and even more so later on, not to mention early game. Yes, if everyone ramps then everyone is ahead. But if three players are on Farseek and one is on Sol Ring you've still got the same 50% difference...

5
What is Mini Magic?

6
As you said you "seeing" a turn 1 sol ring doesn't make it also degenerate, ruin your games, and archenemy.

[...]

How are those 2 scenarios related? I'll first answer the question with a question. It'll be a yes or no because aren't you ahead in mana in either scenario? Now to answer it without the question. Both scenarios put you ahead in mana and while I agree one puts you ahead further but non the less both put you ahead in mana.

I am so confused. Do you not understand how much more 15 mana is over 10 mana? The discrepancy grows the further the game progresses! How is that not super lopsided?

7
It's not 3 mulligans, it's up to. Going down to 5 is a reasonable assumption in my opinion. At least I mulligan to 5 if needed... Okay, not everyone is hunting for the Sol Ring hand, some hands with Sol Ring might be bad (like no lands), not everyone plays Sol Ring on turn 1 even if they have the capability... The probability of anyone playing Sol Ring on T1 is lower, yes. My wording was "seeing a turn 1 Sol Ring", not whether people actually play it or not.

I didn't understand the rest of your arguments except the shuffling one which sounds a little dubious at best. I know one person who doesn't shuffle properly and I've played a lot of games. The rest shuffle just fine.

Citazione
Actually it does make it invalid when I just proved it. Facts are facts when someone is trying to use an "if" case scenario. While there is a probability of something happening doesn't make it so. A turn 1 sol ring also shows up less then one might expect. The instinct is "always" expect a turn 1 sol to be a powerful thing to do when in actuality it isn't "always" fact. Same thing could be said that Someone playes farseek on turn 2 while I just play a land and pass. Now that person is up 1 land and has more mana then I do come turn 3.

I'm sorry, I don't see proof of anything. Having 4 mana on turn 2 is much more potent than having 4 mana on turn 3.

Compare:
  • T1: Land + Sol Ring (accumulated 2 free mana)
  • T2: Land (accumulated 2 + 2 + 2 = 6 free mana
  • T3: Land (accumulated 6 + 3 + 2 = 9 free mana)
  • T4: Land (accumulated 9 + 4 + 2 = 15 free mana)

and:
  • T1: Land (accumulated 1 free mana)
  • T2: Land + Farseek (accumulated 1 free mana)
  • T3: Land (accumulated 1 + 4 = 5 free mana)
  • T4: Land (accumulated 5 + 5 = 10 free mana)

Assuming both players hit their 4th land drop, which is reasonable, the Sol Ring player has had an accumulated 50% more mana to play with. How are these two scenarios comparable?

EDIT: Heck, let's throw in the lands only option.

  • T1: Land (1 accumulated free mana)
  • T2: Land (1 + 2 = 3 accumulated free mana)
  • T3: Land (3 + 3 = 6 accumulated free mana)
  • T4: Land (6 + 4 = 10 accumulated free mana)

Playing lands only is on par with playing Farseek up until turn 4.

8
If everyone plays Sol Ring and mulligans up to 3 times there's a 26% chance you see a T1 Sol Ring. If the decks at the table are otherwise void of fast mana it creates a very lopsided start / game.

That means about one quarter of all your games are "ruined" by Sol Ring if you don't like playing archenemy chosen at random.

Math nerdout moment:
https://www.reddit.com/r/EDH/comments/120jvvk/to_sol_ring_or_not_to_sol_ring_variance_and/

I for one don't like that which means I'm taking Sol Ring out unless there's a good reason to include it. I think all my paper decks either have extra synergies, enable combos, or have other fast mana. (Which means I do play Sol Ring...)

9
Hi,

The topic has been previously discussed here but since this is way into the later stages and a cry for help I'm making a new post. Feel free to browse the previous thread but keep new comments here!

In essence I've been chasing the white whale answer to the question:

"How many lands and ramp cards should my deck have?"

and I'm on my final stretch. I have a tool that generates recommendations. It's written in Python and not available for the public as of yet because I need someone to help me verify the logic and get feedback. I also have 40 pages of a research article written and would love to go over that with someone as well.

Prerequisites:
  • Must know Python and be somewhat familiar with GitHub
  • Must know mathematics and specifically probabilities
  • Communication would be over Discord (preferably over voice)

About the math behind the calculations:
  • Assumes the player wants to get to a point where they can cast two spells per turn
  • Assumes the player wants to ramp first, then play lands only until the required mana has been reached
  • Assumes all ramp cards are Arcane Signet or similar (costs 2, enters untapped, makes 1 mana)
  • Draw isn't accounted for at this stage

About the tool itself:
  • Takes in number of commanders, average mana value, mulligans and desired aggressivenes of ramping
  • Spits out a heatmap of recommendations where the highest probability is the optimum number of lands and ramp cards
  • It has a rudimentary GUI and I'm working on hosting it somewhere but currently it's only available as a (private) repo

Here's a sneak peek for you all to get you interested!


10
I think it's already a staple. At least my friends and I are running it in Wx decks.

11
Off-Topic / Re: Just want to Appreciate that this site exist.
« il: Settembre 18, 2023, 10:55:52 am »
I've enjoyed this forum for exactly 1111 posts!

EDIT: How did one of them get deleted somehow??

That was us. We cleaned house on a few posts from scammers and ad-bots. Unfortunately you had left a reply in one of those threads and it got deleted along with everything else.

- Morganator 2.0

12
"A" card I'd love to have is a Kaladesh masterpiece. Any one of them, really.
Since writing this I have bought a Gauntlet of Power masterpiece and a Black Vise masterpiece. So there ya go.

13
Commander Discussion / Re: Best Card In Your Deck
« il: Settembre 11, 2023, 02:08:51 pm »
Lurrus of the Dream-Den says Memnite.

Sure, Krark-Clan Ironworks is a good one, so is Skullclamp but I think out of the things in the deck there's just way too much synergy going on with Memnite. It's a once-a-turn free action. Free mana with KCI, Phyrexian Altar or Ashnod's Altar, free cards with Skullclamp, free scry 1 with Viscera Seer, a free recurring attacker with Cranial Plating, you can get it with Urza's Saga, a free 1 life with High Market, a free land with Path to Exile... It's just so much more than what it seems. Innocuous. I always tell people to Path or Swords it.


Ioreth of the Healing House says Nexus of Fate.

The deck makes stupid amounts of mana that can be sunk into X-draw spells. Decking is an option and since I don't run Labman-effects Nexus of Fate becomes infinite turns pretty easily. Before that it's basically a free untap / combat step. Since the deck makes so much mana it's easy to have a setup turn and then go off on the second one. The other option is Chromatic Orrery which is just a stupid amount of mana in the deck.


Kami of the Crescent Moon says ... Mind Over Matter ...?

There are so many bonkers cards in this deck it's hard to decide. I've rarely lost a game with Mind Over Matter, though, so maybe it's the strongest card in the deck. The other option is Windfall which is basically either early game refill, mid-game parity break (with a draw doubler) or a late game finisher to force my opponents to draw from an empty deck. The third option is Dream Halls but it's very risky without a good setup (i.e. a strong hand).

14
General Magic / Re: deckstats
« il: Agosto 04, 2023, 12:54:04 pm »
The above is actually a little incorrect. Deckstats has a beta feature called "Deck Tutor" which compares your collection to existing decks and finds best matches among the decks on Deckstats from cards you own.

https://deckstats.net/forum/index.php/topic,49594.0.html

15
Commander Discussion / Re: Favorite deck you built just to be silly
« il: Luglio 14, 2023, 02:06:57 am »
https://deckstats.net/decks/93006/1290956-the-right-honourable-the-lords

It's still as functional as the British Parliament.

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